Possibility of a Recession 'Cannot Be Discounted'

Published: Wednesday, August 1, 2007 3:08 PM PDT

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Five of six categories studied by USD economist Alan Gin were negative last month, dragging his economic index down by the largest one-month amount since May 2006. He attributed the decline to "sharp drops" in building permits, consumer confidence and help-wanted ads.

The drops in so many categories made June unlike recent months, when the declining categories were more tempered by slight increases in other categories, Gin said.

"The dominant factor in the local economy remains the slumping housing market, which is negatively impacting employment and income, hurting consumption, and leading to a surge in the number of foreclosures," Gin wrote.

"Although a full-fledged recession is not likely for San Diego, the possibility is higher than just a few months ago and cannot be discounted."

-- KELLY BENNETT