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Campaign Season Begins

Published: Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:04 PM PDT



Tom Shepard, who is coordinating the campaign to re-elect Mayor Jerry Sanders, sent over a recent poll.

The campaign hired Luce Research to call 403 San Diegans and here's part of what they had to say:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Sanders is handling his job as Mayor of San Diego?

    Approve 62.3%
    Disapprove 32.5%
    Unsure (Not read) 7.4%


And this:

Mayor Sanders is getting the city’s finances back on track, like he promised. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

    Agree 64.2%
    Disagree 28.3%
    Unsure (Not read) 6.9%
    Refused (Not read) 0.7%


And one other:

Mayor Sanders and his staff made some mistakes on the Sunroad office building project, but he’s corrected them by ordering the building’s height to be reduced and by instituting changes to ensure similar mistakes won’t be made in the future. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

    Agree 75.4%
    Disagree 16.9%
    Unsure (Not read) 6.9%


    Refused (Not read) 0.7%



Seems like the question leads the person being polled to a convenient answer. To avoid that, the pollsters should have stopped at "but he's corrected them."

After all, they didn't choose these words haphazardly. They could have just as easily written: "Mayor Sanders appeared to mislead residents about the Sunroad scandal and has displayed an alarming lack of oversight of his own staff members' actions during the controversy. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?"

But they didn't, of course.

I asked Shepard about leading his polling subjects to conclusions favorable to his client.

"That's a standard format for agree or disagree questions all of them lead them to a conclusion. The question is whether they agree or disagree," he said.

Shepard said there were other questions the pollsters asked but they concerned "campaign strategy" and wouldn't be shared.

So take these however you'd like. But with this press conference today, and polls like this being waved around, it certainly smells like campaign season.

-- SCOTT LEWIS




19 Comments so far on this story...

Hand it to Tommy Boy, he never moves off script. Every election, he rolls out some funky "Can't Touch This" polling results in an effort to scare off challengers. Way to take the bait. What's up, Voice? Is Tom now a "Corporate Sponsor"?

Posted by TY | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 10:41 am

THOSE ARE THE MOST BOGUS NUKMBER I HAVE EVER SEEN!!!!!!!!!!! Sanders did his OWN SELF SERVING POLL. One just needs to look here on the VoSD to get a feel for the pulse of this City. NO ONE here likes Sanders, NO ONE, not the public unions (too many to list, JF,RW,Jim, Brian Marvel, Conservative, etc.), not the public union reformers (me), not the candadites running for office (Bobby E. Lee), not the soscialists (Christopher Hall), NO ONE! How could those numbers be correct? They are not-they are cooked. Sanders is finished, he will NOT be re elected, his is an OAF!

Posted by Billy! Bob!! Henry!!! | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 11:23 am

I suspect Tom Shepard has some idea about how to get accurate, useful information from polls he commissions. He would do himself a disservice by asking questions that lead to false positives. If you think the questions lead, and therefore result in overly positive numbers for Sanders, commission your own poll, and tell us about it. From my perspective, the numbers seem likely to be right in Shepard's poll. Too bad for Aguire and Francis.

Posted by Do your own poll | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 11:38 am

Who did Luce call....Sanders donor list?

Posted by Norman | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 12:45 pm

Nice of Tim Shepard to share his latest fiction with the voice. What he gave you is called "push-polling," based on bogus questions and skewed answers. Shepard is a pro, well-paid and detached. Thanks at least for sounding a little skeptical about what he fed you. But I have a question that might be answered by a statistician (not another political consultant, please.) Can somebody tell me if 403 respondents are considered a reliable polling sample?

Posted by Fed Up | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 2:55 pm

I agree that Tom Sheppard put those questions because he knew what the answers were. The useful information they produced was that Scott printed it. 20% of the people who read Scott's post will see at as positive for the mayor(its the same 20% of San Diego that can't find america on a map). The rest as BBH correctly put it, probably wouldn't vote for the mayor anyway. Even though Scott ripped it, this in combination with the this just in yesterday and the UT's Vigils little scribble on Aguirre's quibble with SDCERS was a good media day for the Mayor. Congrats to the Voice and UT for covering the stuff that matters you guys have really Since no one has a credible opponent, the funniest thing about this campaign will be watching the media get manipulated. That and the City Attorney and Mayor other.

Posted by Basic Civics | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 10:58 pm

Don't worry. Francis will counter with his own self-serving poll showing how many people DON'T like Jerry Sanders, and the race will be on. And to correct BillyBob: there are SOME people who like Sanders, such as the developers and business people trying to steal city jobs in the privatization scheme. The unsuspecting public doesn't understand that outsourcing jobs will enrich the business owners but won't reduce cost to the taxpayers. On the contrary, businesses will pay low-scale wages with no benefits and keep the profits for themselves. The only thing that will pass on to the taxpayer is crappy service by underpaid, exploited employees. But Sanders will whip out another poll showing that everything is hunkydory and the city is saving millions. And then Francis will come along and whip out HIS poll suggesting HIS ideas save even MORE money!

Posted by Cheeky | reply to this comment
September 12, 2007 11:29 pm

This poll is the biggest streatch of any pol I have read in years. While I seldom agree with BBH he is right on this one. Unless everyone I talk to is lying to me I have yet to meet and talk to ANYONE who thinks Sanders is doing a good job, we are better off since he got elected and the financial picture of hte City is better. Tom Sheppard should get into the circus. His ability to spin crap would win him any audience. If he ever tried using the truth I have a feeling he would be out of a job. Sanders has done more harm than good. He needs to take Freddy "The Clown" Sainz and get out of City Hall.

Posted by Sparky | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 12:11 am

I personally don't care for Sanders, Francis or Frye. That being said, Sanders will be re-elected, you can count on it. Just watch and see.

Posted by Kellie | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 2:26 am

Alas...As much as I and many others dislike and distrust Sanders, I believe he will be re-elected. If my only choices are Sanders, Frye and Francis, I either vote for Sanders or not at all. How sad for all of us!

Posted by Jim | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 3:28 am

No one loves Sanders-the Oaf, Franci$-the-Privatiz or Had-A-Chance-and-Ble Frye. The question is whether people in this city will demand better than what's out there now. Will Donna Frye have the sense, humility and courage to step away and use her formidable reputation and influence to develop an excellent new mayoral candidate that voters can support? Will people get out and vote? Elections are being decided by a fraction of registered voters and issues are being clouded by "polls" from operators like Tom Shepard and monied special interests. Will strategically rushed proposals from Alan Bersin/John Davies' charter review "committee" for more drastic "strong mayor" measures -- greater concentration of power in unaccountable hands -- be identified and stopped? Right now, San Diegans need a new broom, a new mayor, and an elected charter commission to look deliberately at the best way to structure government.

Posted by Fed Up | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 3:52 am

I recognize a lot of these names from Susan Golding's days. We all know what a GREAT job they did that time!

Posted by Sue | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 4:25 am

Please note that your system kept making uncorrectable typos in my first sentence which should read ....Franci$ the Privatizer and Had-a-Chance-and-Ble Frye. Please fix if possible. Thanks.

Posted by Fed Up | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 4:40 am

As a former employee of a telemarking business I can tell you that most 'surveys' are more about planting information under the guise of soliciting opinions or objective information. It's done by both democrats and republicans.

Posted by Telemarketer | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 4:43 am

For what it's worth, Nicole Ramirez-Murray last week reported: "Frye stated to me she will not be a candidate for mayor." If that's true, all I can say is, "Watch out, Ron Roberts."

Posted by TY | reply to this comment
September 13, 2007 5:08 am

So some of you think the poll is inaccurate, but that you can gauge public opinion by the messages on this blog? Now that's funny!

Posted by donnajeanw | reply to this comment
September 14, 2007 5:33 am

Ahhh..yeah.. ok donnajeanw.. ..errrr.....I would say this blog is tha pulse of San Diego, and far more credible than the Col.'s fabricated self serving paid for numbers. But hey, don't take my word for it, wait until election time when the Col. is tossed out of office.

Posted by Billy Bob Henry | reply to this comment
September 16, 2007 7:39 am

As a candidate against Mayor Sanders; I take pride as director of the San Diego Renters Union and as the first openly-gay candidate for mayor in those citizens who volunteer for our Coalition for Clean and Fair Government. In San Diego, the switch to a strong-mayor type government has been a disaster. Influence peddling, unethical contracts to campaign donors, unscrupulous collusion between city officials and developers, deception and lies from the Mayor's office seem routine. Reflected dramatically in the Sunroad scandal. Sanders failure to address our water crisis, propose anti-global warming strategies, look at the affordable housing nightmare in our city is reason enough to dump this guy. We will be proposing rent control measures, water and energy independence by 2021 and the decentralization of City Hall into Neighborhood Councils. Check us out! Rocky Neptun. link

Posted by Rocky Neptun | reply to this comment
September 17, 2007 7:42 pm

As a professional pollster, I can confirm that those questions are deliberately worded to generate a biased answer. The proper wording would put "Would you agree or disagree with the following statement:" at the BEGINNING, not the END of the statement, so that the respondent already knows to evaluate, not simply accept as fact, the statement that follows. The wording used forces respondents to call the pollster a liar, and people are instinctively reluctant to do that. Shepard's a pro, and he clearly knew what he was doing with the wording that he used.

Posted by Douglas Johnson | reply to this comment
September 20, 2007 8:15 am


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Scott Lewis on Politics

The Scott Lewis on Politics blog, abbreviated cleverly as SLOP, is a collection of observations, insights and the occasional scoop on public affairs in San Diego. Please feel free to e-mail Scott at scott.lewis@voiceofsandiego.org.

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