If you've followed my countdown over the past little while, you had to know this was coming. Clearly, the most important upcoming political story -- at least foreseeable one -- in the coming 12 months will be Mike Aguirre's effort to stay in the City Attorney's Office and his many enemies' attempt to oust him.
Maienschein has a campaign war chest. It was supposed to be available for the once rising star in a bid for mayor or county supervisor. Now, he's apparently ready to spend it on this. Most of the theories I've heard seem to suggest that this is only good news for the incumbent, City Attorney Mike Aguirre. And most of those theories focus on Maienschein's potential impact on Superior Court Judge Jan Goldsmith.
I think this race will be about who gets to challenge Aguirre in November.
I think Aguirre is beatable. But I think you have to have a united opposition. And that only happens, I believe, when there's only one other candidate in the race against Aguirre. Goldsmith and his conservative allies might be that guy. But it's rather insulting for them to insist that he should be the only candidate in the race and that the others should all obediently bow out because he was the mayor of Poway long ago. Oooh...
Again, Aguirre is beatable. I remember 2004. He had everyone with him. He convinced the U-T, the Realtors, the firefighters, the police, the deputy sheriffs to not only support him but to stand up and shake his hand in front of the cameras. The list of insiders wooed by his charm toward an endorsement was lengthy. Yet Aguirre ended up winning by a shockingly thin margin.
He had everyone on board and yet it was so close he hid away for days sweating out the results.
Since then, Aguirre has lost nearly every single one of those interest groups and insiders. The only traditional group that still proudly wears his pins is the environmental community. I'm really not sure how much that means in terms of electoral support.
Aside from those reliable friends of the incumbent city attorney, come the throngs of citizens who fall into two categories: 1) Those who think he's a loose cannon, if not completely nuts, but he's aiming at all the right targets. These are proud members of the "Screw 'em Club," or S'eC. 2) The second group is comprised of members of the "Aguirre does no wrong and if you criticize him you either work for the U-T or don't have a soul."
I have no clue how big these two groups are. Most local observers I've talked to add the combined strength of these two constituencies to the power of Aguirre's name recognition with the more instinctual voter and come up with about 30 to 35 percent guaranteed vote for him.
It's clear that both Council President Scott Peters and former schools superintendent Alan Bersin are waiting for enough people to plead with them to run as well. Peters might be able to get union support. Bersin has a big enough name to make everything interesting. Both have major negatives and it feels like they're playing the same kind of game Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sen. Dianne Feinstein played when trying to decide whether to run for governor during the recall in 2003.
Lee Burdick, a lawyer and Democrat, faces a mountainous challenge of getting people to know her but she's going after it. Being a woman in this race would be an advantage, but her name is Lee and she's facing a man named Jan. Dan Coffey, though the first one to declare, was unable to solidify major support like he hoped as other candidates faced trouble deciding what to do.
Anyway, that's the horse race. But this is a much bigger deal than an intriguing chess matches of Jan Goldsmith and Brian Maienschein on the one hand and Peters and Bersin on the other.
Love him or hate him, Mike Aguirre has completely redefined the role of the city attorney. He has an army of lawyers at his disposal that will follow up his every suspicion and theory. His determination that the city attorney represents the people of San Diego and not their government -- which was once a charming campaign statement -- has morphed into a radical philosophy that is as confusing in practice as it is controversial.
He has tried to set the scene for his coming re-election bid. He says that the forces that criticize him or oppose him emanate from a good 'ol boys network looking to profit from city government and speaking through The San Diego Union-Tribune. You are either with him or with them.
Some believe that San Diego will face a paralyzing sort of chaos for the several more years if Aguirre is elected for another term. Others shudder at the thought of handing the City Attorney's Office over to a weak insider who sees his or her job as one meant to facilitate the desires of the mayor and City Council not look out for the best legal interests of the city.
How this plays out will quite clearly be the most interesting if not the most historically impactful political story not just of 2008, but of the last decade of local politics. At least, as far as I can tell.
Comments so far on this story:
1. Ronald wrote on January 21, 2008 9:50 PM:
"He hasn't in fact redefined the role of the city attorney. Oh, certainly he has tried to do so, and has put the city's business on the brink of ruin as a result. But this will be a bad memory in a few short years. We had Gwinn, who ruined the office by putting it at the disposal of Golding and her council majority - his was the "Office of Yes, Mayor". Now we have Aguirre, who further ruined the office (exponentially, in fact), by using it as a vehicle for his fake brand of populism, which was in reality only to further the interests of his special interest cronies - all at great cost to the functioning of the city as an entity. We can and will get back to a Witt-like city attorney, if not this time, then next."
2. Ronald wrote on January 21, 2008 9:50 PM:
"He hasn't in fact redefined the role of the city attorney. Oh, certainly he has tried to do so, and has put the city's business on the brink of ruin as a result. But this will be a bad memory in a few short years. We had Gwinn, who ruined the office by putting it at the disposal of Golding and her council majority - his was the "Office of Yes, Mayor". Now we have Aguirre, who further ruined the office (exponentially, in fact), by using it as a vehicle for his fake brand of populism, which was in reality only to further the interests of his special interest cronies - all at great cost to the functioning of the city as an entity. We can and will get back to a Witt-like city attorney, if not this time, then next."
3. cheeky wrote on January 22, 2008 2:11 AM:
"Since when is Aguirre looking out for the legal interests of the city? When he bellows to the crowd of attorneys at the La Jolla landslide that the City is at fault? Or when he refuses to represent council members on legal matters, consistently telling them to get outside advice at the expense of taxpayers? Or maybe when he plays fire chief and wants to evacuate the whole city to Arizona? It seems that right now the interests of the Mayor and city council have been to complete delayed audits, re-enter the bond market, manage natural disasters, streamline the city budget while attempting to retain police and fire safety personnel, complete much needed infrastructure work, and move forward without the threat of bankruptcy. Aguirre has been nothing but a hindrance in this process, and has spent millions of dollars challenging court decisions on pension issues already litigated."
4. Torrey Pines wrote on January 22, 2008 8:16 AM:
"What a field of contenders. So how long has Goldsmith been a San Diegan? He's a Poway guy, looking like a calvary captain riding in to town to carpet bag for the Republican big wigs. Maienschein will manipulate this announcement into some gig with some Sunroad like entity. He'll be rewarded. The Dumanis guy, Gentry, bailed out after the disclosures of favoritism for a wife murdering sheriff. Coffey helped scuttle one of the best economic ideas in years, the Brown Field commercial airport. Bersin? That is like saying Dick Chaney. All you can do is laugh when you hear the name. And, Peters. He'd be a Casey Gwinn re-run. You all can trash Aguirre. However, as an average San Diegan, he and his people are still my best chance at transparent representation."
5. JF wrote on January 22, 2008 9:16 AM:
"Here's my question -- will Aguirre turn down his retirement? He's already the highest paid person in the city at $205,245 for 2005.His benefits add about another 57%, taking him to about $325K... and he hasn't won a case himself.So let's see, $205K/year x 3.5% pension multiplier x 8 years service if re-elected.... $57,000 per year for life + medical.Just in case you didn't know, retired officials are vested after 4 years, though they do have to reach the age of 55 before they can collect.Aguirre's had a huge problem with SDCERS.If he's really that serious about the problem, he won't participate in the program."
6. Steve K wrote on January 22, 2008 9:23 AM:
"I don't think Maienschein or Peters should expect to hold elected office, in San Diego, again. I certainly hope not!"
7. Lacy wrote on January 22, 2008 9:42 AM:
"Oh m goodness guys. How hard is it to see that NO one, repeat NO one, who was on the SD City Council during the years that the dumb (but not illegal) deals were made, should not run for a city office? Are your egos so darn big that you really don't see that the voters really are trying to get smarter?? They want to stop walking into the 'dumb' votes. They are starting to open their eyes to the poor choice they made in the current City Attorney. OK, go ahead and push it all into November. My ballot marker will function twice. I will vote for whoever runs against Mr Aguirre. Any REAL lawyer would be better for the city than he."
8. 2 cent Jack wrote on January 22, 2008 10:15 AM:
"Hate to admit it, but without Mike to push back, the Strong Mayor Sanders and lemmings would have jumped the City right off the cliff by now. Ok, maybe that's extreme, but we'd be a lot closer to the "good old days" that weren't all that good for most of us. How about an Aguirre-Francis-Frye Troika? Wouldn't that be interesting? Frye as Council President could get all those pesky questions answered, Francis could apply some business knowledge steering us through bankruptcy, and Mike could clamp down on that piece of crap general plant update. Hmmmmm"
9. CP wrote on January 22, 2008 11:11 AM:
"I really do think Aguirre deserves a lot of credit for starting a conversation about what the City Attorney should be. And I think a lot of people like his theory that the office represents the people, but many disagree on how Aguirre personally operates. Along these lines, the American Constitution Society of San Diego is having a panel discussion on the topic of “What is a progressive view of the City Attorney’s office.” We’ll be talking about the office, not the man. It’ll be on Wednesday, Jan. 23, at 6:30 PM, at the SD County Bar Association. The event’s free."
10. Another Any Mouse wrote on January 22, 2008 11:38 AM:
"Sounds like an evenhanded piece, as far as I can figger, Scott. Thanks for the SLOP!"
11. Billy Bob Henry wrote on January 22, 2008 1:34 PM:
"5. JF wrote on January 22, 2008 10:16 AM: "Here's my question -- will Aguirre turn down his retirement? He's already the highest paid person in the city at $205,245 for 2005.............Ill bet at least 10% of the SDFD makes more with OT. Mike does not make OT, yet he probably works 70-80 hours per week."
12. Rock On wrote on January 22, 2008 1:47 PM:
"Aguirre fundamentally does not understand the charter-mandated role of the City Attorney. His reliance on an anonymous campaign slogan as authority speaks volumes. For those of us know form the inside, Aguirre starts with an idea in his head that cannot be shaken, no matter how wrong or misinformed it may be. His view that he can unilaterally decide to launch litigation on behalf of the city with no official oversite is something his City Attorney hero Shelly Higgins is certainly rolling in his grave over. While the people of the City are the ultimate client, they are represented by those in the municipal corporation, and Aguirre refuses to recognize this relationship. This has greatly contributed to a disfunctional city government. Aguirre is just as much a part of the problem anyone he accuses. Those of you who've never worked with him can just keep your head in the sand."
13. JF wrote on January 22, 2008 5:02 PM:
"BBH, you're so full of it.I sent you the link of the top paid city employees last week.You looked at it.Number 2 was Aguirre.He was right after Torrell, who's gone now.So number 1 is Aguirre.Why do you persist in posting things that are out and out lies?And Scott, why do you let him?"
14. Billy Bob Henry wrote on January 22, 2008 8:30 PM:
"13. JF wrote on January 22, 2008 6:02 PM: Why do you persist in posting things that are out and out lies?And Scott, why do you let him?............ Hour for hour SDFD makes more than Mike. JF you already said the City cut back on OT-so you're not comparing apples to apples. FD works, well they are 'on call' for a much shorter time period than Mike, who actually works the entire time he is in the office, versus being on call like the FD."
15. Eye in the Sky wrote on January 22, 2008 10:48 PM:
"Scott. Your math needs some work. If only one candidate runs a "unified" opposition to Mike Aguirre, then one of them will win in the primary because one of the two has to get 50% plus 1. The only way to get a run-off is if there are three or more candidates to force a long campaign into November. The entry of Brian or Scott or Bersin IS intended to force a runoff and guarantee a real campaign."
16. Ann wrote on January 23, 2008 12:25 AM:
"No elected officials get overtime. If they don't like it, they don't have to run for office. How do the mayor's and other elected officials' salaries compare to Aguirre. Does anyone know?"
17. JF wrote on January 23, 2008 7:19 AM:
"BBH, you're dancing around the fact that you're just plain wrong.Aguirre is the highest paid city employee.Any firefighter who is anywhere near him in pay(and the closest was $55K, or 25%, less) is working an average of 70+ hours/week as well.Plus...they're awake 48-72 hours straight at emergency incidents.And...the feds reimburse the city for their OT AND the OT of their replacement here in the city.So don't whine to me about how much Aguirre works.Oh, and Ann, the mayor only takes home about $30K in salary because that's all he can legally as a provisional (retired) employee.Council members make less than $100K, but some of their assistants make in the low $100K range."
18. Watcher wrote on January 23, 2008 10:18 AM:
"How can Manschein run for another office? He hasn't shown up for more than half the city council meetings over the last six months. With an attendence record like his, I'm not sure how he could serve as the city's attorney. Of course, there are those who would probably like an absentee city attorney, who couldn't call them when they break the law."
19. Watcher wrote on January 23, 2008 10:18 AM:
"How can Manschein run for another office? He hasn't shown up for more than half the city council meetings over the last six months. With an attendence record like his, I'm not sure how he could serve as the city's attorney. Of course, there are those who would probably like an absentee city attorney, who couldn't call them when they break the law."
20. JF wrote on January 23, 2008 8:02 PM:
"Ooops, I made a mistake.The highest paid FD employee only made a few thousand less than Aguirre if you include OT.However, the CA makes a lot more in retirement and benefits, so my assertion is still valid."
21. Billy Bob Henry wrote on January 25, 2008 9:12 AM:
"20. JF wrote on January 23, 2008 9:02 PM: "Ooops, I made a mistake.The highest paid FD employee only made a few thousand less than Aguirre if you include OT......BUT, you are using a relative scale, in ABSOULTE terms, Mike works probably twice as many hours of a SD FF even with OT, so the relative pay scale for a HS educated FF is in reality HIGHER than that of the City Attorney, who has 7 years of college under their belt. As for the benefits, two wrongs do not make a right in my book. Your arument is because Mike is getting over the top benefits you should too. Wrong."
22. Rocky wrote on January 26, 2008 9:59 AM:
"When the dust settles Mike will be reelected and he will continue to sift out the corruption that has paralyzed the city of San Diego for more years then most of us can remember. Nobody in city politics deserves a raise more then Mike. Without Mike at the helm most San Diego citizens would have never known the real mess this city is now in, and has been in all these years. Don't give up Mike. Your on a roll and the bandits know it."
23. JF wrote on January 26, 2008 10:16 AM:
"Well, let's see...the standard FD schedule is 56 hours/week.So you're saying that Aguirre works twice that?112 Hours/week?Oh wait, you said "with OT" and no firefighter is making $200K without averaging about 80 hours/week.So you're saying that Aguirre works 160 hours/week?Any FD employee who is making that kind of money has decades of experience AND is working one of the specialties, such as being a paramedic, haz mat technician, etc.In other words, much more experience than Mikey at doing their job.So by saying that two wrongs don't make a right in regards to benefits, you're saying that you agree with me that Aguirre should give back his retirement and benefits?"
24. I remember 1/27/08 wrote on January 27, 2008 3:57 PM:
"I remember Gwynn, Pfingst, Murphy, Golding, McCrory, et al. of the era of take what you can. Noone in office, including certain Judges did a thing to correct the situation. Two City Councils let the unions get away with a $l.3 billion dollar pension. The city was headed for bankruptcy. Mike Aguirre was elected and put his money where his mouth was(is). Govt. people were named and indicted, people resigned hoping to avoid jail, six or seven of the mayor's staff resigned; The current mayor was made to back-track on the SunRoad corruption, as were members of the DSD who either resigned or were fired. Then, because Mike aguirre, did his job albeit with very transparent actions, the good old boys club got down on him and persuaded cronies to do as much damage to him as possible. You blind, naieve govt. toddies should wise up. Aguirre is the best you've had."
25. Paul wrote on January 29, 2008 4:54 PM:
"Mike Aguirre has demonstrated the shocking ability to misuse his office to settle political scores, destroy the city attorney office, wildly spend money, lose vitually every case his has filed, being investigated by the State Bar, and is the major reason that the City/County could lose the Chargers (just ask the Chargers)."
26. Rocky wrote on January 30, 2008 9:29 AM:
"Paul, Losing the chargers may not be all that bad. From where I sit it looks like the chargers have reached into the pocket of the city for way to long. I think all they have ever wanted was a new stadium in Mission Valley and all that property around it to develop to their delight. Wake up fans, the Chargers are just like any other business. Would you build a new store for Wal-Mart and give them 60 acres to boot. Right!"
27. La Playa Heritage wrote on February 16, 2008 2:41 AM:
"link Mr. Goldsmith's Commitment # 9 to the People of San Diego has already been broken. 9. As a condition of employment, all attorneys in the office will conduct their work in a non-partisan, non-political manner, and act with the highest integrity. Members of the public, judges, city staff, city council members and the mayor will be treated with respect at all times even when expressing disagreement. Is this the type of disrespect the general public should look forward to under Mr. Goldsmith? We hope not. An apology to the public is in order. link"