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Dueling Housing Crises

Published: Monday, January 28, 2008 5:08 PM PST



I was on Editor's Roundtable on Friday. In one segment of the show, we talked about the explosion in home foreclosures and governments' coming effort to stave them off. I stumbled trying to think of a phrase to illustrate a point. The show replays on Sunday morning and Sunday I received this e-mail from reader CP with some help.

Moral Hazard.

That’s the phrase you were trying to come up w/ on the editors show today. It allows people to act w/o the normal degree of risk. But a major point in the discussion is that the widening division between the rich and the rest of us has made the purchase of housing so difficult that desperation drove people of moderate means into the unfair and doomed mortgage agreements. I suspect the normal lack of class consciousness displayed by media people often is the result of growing up in comfortable circumstances. All this blather about "personal responsibility" particularly from Ruben Navarette on this program shows me ignorance or perhaps willful disregard of the problems facing so many of us as the gap between the haves and have-nots inexorably widens. I was a bit disappointed that you reps from two progressive media did not pick up on this in your discussion.

The natural reaction of progressives to what's happening in the housing market is to rush to the aid of those losing their homes. Even conservatives like the president have seen what's happening and interpreted it in the same vein as some kind of natural disaster. And they are responding the only way they know how: with money. And it's not a just a national phenomenon with the economic stimulus package. Right now, local officials are busy thinking of ways to protect people from foreclosure as well through the City County Reinvestment Task Force.

But all this effort to protect the market from a harsh correction flies in the face of another progressive and liberal goal: to provide more affordable housing. If governments scramble to insure lenders from risks of large loans, to ease the burden of some homeowners' massive debt and to protect extreme lending practices, it will only serve to validate and solidify the current price levels of homes.

Rich Toscano makes the point well here.

Ridiculous lending practices drove home prices through the roof. If we bail out the people who cultivated that system, we are collectively accepting that this is indeed how much homes should cost. How does that compare with our other collective decision, made years ago, that homes cost too much? Remember, San Diego's City Council declares a constant state of emergency because of that housing crisis.

Funny how you can have a housing crisis when homes are too expensive, and another one when the prices of homes drop.

But what else comes with that collective decision that homes should cost this much and the government should do everything it can to ensure they do? It forces another collective decision: that buyers should take on an extreme loan if they want to buy these homes.

This then artificially props up the market, protecting those who are invested in it. And that is why the captains of the local building and mortgage industry were so enthused about the relief package.

This isn't an issue of a lack of compassion for those who are having trouble with their mortgages. Many of their mortgage brokers promised that when this day came, they'd be able to refinance or sell. If that was fraud, it should be prosecuted. If families need some assistance reentering the rental market, maybe there's something to be done.

But we should realize that the government is deciding that homes should remain too expensive for people of moderate means. And that doesn't seem like a very progressive decision to make.

-- SCOTT LEWIS




24 Comments so far on this story...

Many house buyers did not know how much they were really paying because the lenders,real estte brokers, and mortgage brokers did not tell them. Add to this the crooked appraisers that inflated the value of the properties. Since there are so many crooks operating, its no wonder honest people are now losing their homes and their life savings. Did you notice there are no penalties against the liars who cheated the home buyers ? There should be, otherwise history will repeat . Real estate is complicated. Perhaps the government, as a neutral party,shold explain the risks to the somtimes unwitting home buyer. Is this Big Brother ? Yes,but it sure beats foreclosure.

Posted by mel | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 8:04 am

The lenders & mortgage brokers who 'sold' such lies should Not be 'bailed out.' Mortgage Brokers/Real Estate Investors should Not be 'made whole' by the Public, who they screwed. There should be penalties and no 'adjusted mortgages' for 'investors.' Home Fed in the last major bank 'boo-boo' "Lost" everything, as it should have. Why is the government now being 'soft?' At the least, they should be 'forced to service' their loans, readjusted, perhaps, over 40 or 50 years so folks can 'afford' to pay the fees, while they must be made to Live In the properties for at least 15 years, as some of the 'gov't. based' loans do. Then Bank 'profits' are far less, and maybe they won't go bk. Any homes with such long loans should reduce 'sales' prices. (has to be 'taught' to appraisers & agents-to compare with those who 'played fair.'

Posted by Simple Solutions | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 8:35 am

If you're too stupid to understand the implications of taking out a mortgage, don't blame appraisers, lenders, brokers, etc, for your problem. I don't feel sorry in the least for anybody in foreclosure right now. Guess that attitude comes with an adult life of living within my means and using a little common sense every now and then.

Posted by Larry | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 9:13 am

Larry's time stamp indicates he is in the future by 30 minutes as it is now 10:45am on Jan 29, 2008. That's a bit brazen to call those that had no choice but to pay high because of the BS marketing tactics STUPID... Since you are the adult and on top of things, how do we fix the mess without us stupid people being completely ripped off... we can't just simply take the loss and drop our prices because we were duped. How about the government give everyone of us who bought within the last two years $100,000 to offset a potential loss. The real estate market will rebound and we will all be able to sell our homes when we are ready for a profit, we need to hang on and not give in to the doomsayers that are trying to steal back our homes.

Posted by Frank | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 10:56 am

Hey Frank? If you took out a mortgage that you couldn't afford, you made a fundamentally bad decision. You should have continued to rent or gone some place where the prices were in your range. Owning a McMansion in SoCal isn't a God given right. If you took out a mortgage figuring that you'd flip the property or refi in short order, you SPECULATED poorly and have to live with the consequences. As for CP's socialist blather about class consciousness, that's just nonsense.

Posted by Larry | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 12:29 pm

The prices are too high. A market adjustment should not be short-circuited with price supports for the scum who ran up the prices with mortgage fraud. Save the people with one home, let the flippers and mortgage speculators die, burn and rot in the 10-year bankruptcy/credit record/foreclosure hell they deserve to stew in. There's another point to reconsider. Banks thought that getting that evil reform passed would serve to prop up lender abuse. They should suffer by not being able to loan to those same losers for 10 years. That ought to help the pricing problem.

Posted by Frank In SD | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 12:39 pm

Hallelujah! Now if this could be shouted from the mountain top so everyone could hear and unfortunately, NO ONE WILL CARE. This is contrary to everyoneâ??s (political and business) interest. Thanks Scott for clearly exposing the picture no one wants to see.

Posted by Keith | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 2:24 pm

Hmmm...20% appreciation/yr. x 5yrs...now that rise is receding? poor babies!

Posted by EZCcomeEZgo | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 2:25 pm

Why doesn't this point of view come across in political debates or mainstream media? Politicians want to make it sound like they are helping "middle class America", in the long term that is who they are hurting with this kind of bailout. People living within their means are priced out of the market, so the government would rather "stimulate the economy" by helping people continue to struggle with overpriced mortgages? How about stimulating the economy by letting more people (first time buyers) afford to live in it? In the end REASONABLE housing improves the quality of life for everyone. I can't help but notice that the government has been just as irresponsible with it's tax generated money, betting houses will always go up. Maybe high property taxes is really whats being protected.

Posted by overpriced07 | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 4:00 pm

Frank, If the government should give you $100k to offset your losses... then maybe you should have given the rest of us $100k when houses were going up. ARM and subprime owners didn't complain when they were living outside of their means buying homes for too much and driving the prices higher for the rest of us. So now that things are reversed, suddenly it's unfair?

Posted by overpriced07 | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 4:14 pm

One: NOTHING about buying R.E. is moral, simple or uncomplicated. Sellers, lenders and politicians have seen to that. Two: Huckstering to every Tom, Dick & Harry; tempting them with ''having a piece of the American Dream'' and feeding them the gobbeldygook of interest-only loans is nothing short of fraud; see no. 1. Three: Cutting the victims off at the knees when the market tanks--as in getting a dose of proportion--makes no sense at all. Killing someone's credit makes them a net drain on society, permanently. Four: Property ''values'' need to be rethought; structures lose value through depreciation steadily and that should affect value. So should loss of city amenities through piss-poor planning and operations. So should crowding. R.E. lives in a bubble and it should die when the bubble pops, but in a civil society, at least the victims shouldn't be left to go under. Pox on 'em all.

Posted by JR | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 5:11 pm

Larry: Your last piece of property will be a six-foot, one bedroom plot with no view or amenities. Just like everyone else's. So while you waste breath, try to avoid looking down your long nose at the ''suckers''. You'll be mulch with them too, someday, and the daisies won't care who pushes.

Posted by JR | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 5:22 pm

No matter what, the crisis will not be over until 1: Rents increase to a level that a condo can be purchased and rental payments will provide a decent return--3 or 4 % 2: Sale prices come down to a point the rents will provide a decent return or 3: both of above.

Posted by Phred | reply to this comment
January 29, 2008 9:26 pm

I have little sympathy for those who bought homes with none of their money invested nor for those who took substantial amounts of cash equity out and spent it on their trips, credit cards, etc. Until developers are forced to build inclusionary housing, we will continue to have housing shortages for the average worker.

Posted by Coast Watcher | reply to this comment
January 30, 2008 12:50 pm

Nothing the government does will keep home prices from falling, in San Diego. The irrational exuberance, of the market, between 2000 and 2005, made real estate unafordable for the bulk of San Diegans, if they didn't sell a home to come up with a down payment, large enough to make monthly payments affordable. Until home prices are in line with income, good luck sell a home, at market price!

Posted by Steve K | reply to this comment
January 30, 2008 1:35 pm

SD home prices won't be saved by this bailout. The plummet will continue. It wasn't just "cheap money" that drove prices up; it was the classic bubble-inflator of faux economic justification for the prices. Remember the "new economy" in the dot-com days? Just a few short years later, too many people were buying the notion of San Diego's "fundamental housing shortage" based on its attractive lifestyle. There would never be enough housing to satisfy demand; thus, prices will always go up. If I had a dollar for every claim -- even by intelligent, educated people who've been through many boom-bust cycles -- that prices would at the most "flatten, but never drop," I could almost afford a downtown condo in foreclosure. (cont.)

Posted by Bubbly Sue | reply to this comment
January 31, 2008 12:22 pm

... So many people overpaid thinking, *Gee, $900K seems like a lot for this 2-bedroom fixer in Kensington, but if I wait, it'll be $1.1 million.* They had plenty of people willing to back them up on that justification, and they had plenty of reason to believe they'd be sitting on a nice bed of market-runup-derived equity in a few short months. Well, that mentality is gone now. There's no impetus to get in right now as there was back when a few months' wait could mean paying $50K more. And with the end of the no-down loans, you'll have very few first-timers who have even 10 percent to put down on a median-priced home. How many people have $44K in the bank? Meanwhile, potential move-up buyers can't sell their own places for huge profits to use in their next purchase. We are nowhere NEAR the bottom, people.

Posted by Bubbly Sue | reply to this comment
January 31, 2008 12:43 pm

The one thing I haven't heard mentioned yet is that a home purchase is a business partnership. Everyone wants to blame either the individual or the banks. The fact is that banks were betting on the continued appreciation. They had to be otherwise they wouldn't have given out the loans. They are trying to make a profit too you know. Banks don't give loans out of the goodness of their hearts. They do it only if there is a chance of making money. A couple of years ago, real estate agents and mortgage lenders were desperate to get that one last sale in. At least the agents got a few more commissions before the market went bad. I vote for no bailout for anyone; neither banks nor individuals.

Posted by partners | reply to this comment
January 31, 2008 11:14 pm

There is a great article in Harper's about the new nature of bubbles - they are now part of America's economic pattern. Dotcom, real estate and the next one is energy. In each case government regulation (or lack thereof) primed the pump for hyperinflation and speculation. When the entire system is stacked against you, arguing about the supposed morality of borrowing money or greed is really beside the point.

Posted by cranky | reply to this comment
February 1, 2008 10:09 am

Hey, Partners, the thing is that the banks making the loans weren't really taking a risk because they sold the loans off right away to other companies. So there was a separation between the people making the bad calls -- giving loans to people who stated their income and who didn't have any skin in the game (ie a downpayment). They knew full well eventually this pyramid scheme would end, but it was a game of hot potato -- how fast could they get these loans off their books before the crash came. Securities firms bought bundles of these bad loans, but again, it was a matter of wanting to get them into eager investors hands so they could get their big year-end bonuses. I think the culpability for this crisis rests more with lenders than borrowers, because they should -- and did! -- know better.

Posted by Bubbly Sue | reply to this comment
February 1, 2008 7:40 pm

It seems like our free enterprise system has deteriorated into one pyramid scheme after another!

Posted by Steve K | reply to this comment
February 2, 2008 9:55 am

Here here, Scott! Your comments today are right on point. I'm apalled that the gov't is going to bail homeowners and banks out of this mess, and not because I'm a "have" looking down my nose at those unfortunate people losing their homes. Rather, my husband and I rent a house for our middle-class selves. And for the past several years, we've shook our heads in disbelief as we saw so many friends and acquaintances over-extending and utilizing sub-prime loans to buy overpriced houses. I honestly can't believe so many people were so stupid. It was like a virus. Of course, I did have a moment or two when I questioned if we were the crazy ones for not jumping on the bandwagon, but believe me, that fever went away quickly.

Posted by Glory | reply to this comment
February 6, 2008 1:46 pm

As someone who was able to easily ignore the fervor around me, I honestly don't understand how so many people thought it a good idea to buy those homes. When the market first got hot and people would tell me I'm stupid for not getting in any way I could, I would explain that I didn't want to pay $300-400k for what was essentially a crappy apartment in east county. And that was before the sub-prime and negative amortization loans took off (crazy and stupid becomes really crazy and super stupid). I think someone was pumping some funky kool-aid into the water supply.

Posted by Glory | reply to this comment
February 6, 2008 1:46 pm

Had I known that the gov't was going to bail me out, I would've bought a great big house!

Posted by Glory | reply to this comment
February 6, 2008 1:53 pm


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The Scott Lewis on Politics blog, abbreviated cleverly as SLOP, is a collection of observations, insights and the occasional scoop on public affairs in San Diego. Please feel free to e-mail Scott at scott.lewis@voiceofsandiego.org.


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