A Nerd's Eye View

January's Foreclosure Explosion



In the prior foreclosure writeup, I opined that the high rate of December foreclosures was deceiving because it likely represented a period of catch-up from November's abnormally low levels.

I guess I was wrong, because January foreclosure activity came in even higher. During the month, 3,299 default notices and 1,461 trustee sale notices were delivered to delinquent borrowers.

The accompanying graph displays the historical monthly prevalence of both default and trustee notices going back to the beginning of the region's prior housing downturn. In order to account for the fact that San Diego has grown a lot over the last couple decades, the NODs and NOTs are represented as a percentage of San Diego's labor force (which I use because it's the only population indicator that is updated monthly).

Current foreclosure activity isn't just outpacing what we saw during the 1990s housing downturn; it is leaving that period in the dust. January's NOD rate was 2.3 times higher and the NOT rate 2.2 times higher than the worst January of the 1990s downturn.

Perhaps January is another aberration and foreclosures will back off a bit in February. Either way, there's little doubt that they will remain quite high on a historical basis. And as long as the overhang of future must-sell inventory continues to grow at such a rapid clip, there's little reason to expect home prices to stop falling.

-- RICH TOSCANO



Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*;
he also writes about San Diego real estate at Piggington's Econo-Almanac. Contact him at rtoscano@pcasd.com.

    Recent Nerd's Eye View Posts

January's Foreclosure Explosion

High-Risk Reset Trends

Yet More Foreclosures in the Pipeline

A Big Price Decline in November

BailoutWatch: Lower Rates for Everyone!

Questioning the Employment Data

Credit Default Swap Problems

Boosterism and December Foreclosures

December Housing Supply and Demand

*Investment advisory services and securities offered through Girard Securities, Inc., member SIPC/FINRA.

Gompers Wants to Add 9th Grade:

 

The popular charter school seeks to provide an option for families shut out of Lincoln High.

Friday, February 8 -- 11:58 am

Filner on San Ysidro:

 

The congressman chats about the border crossing.

Friday, February 8 -- 11:56 am

Best Parking Meter Ever:

 

In broke Chula Vista, a quarter still buys you two and a half hours.

Thursday, February 7 -- 1:37 pm


Sponsored By

MOST POPULAR STORIES:

SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

The Changing Jumbo :

 

Federal stimulus package passes; readers sound off on jumbo cap raise.

Friday, February 8 -- 11:12 am

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Protecting Coastal Resources :

 

Southern California is under constant threat by the likes of toll road pushers.

Thursday, February 7 -- 2:01 pm

CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

The People's University :

 

What will it take to get a downtown library built. It's time people stood up to tackle this issue.

Friday, February 8 -- 5:44 pm

COMMENTARY: SLOP

KOGO News Goes:

 

The station, one of two radio news sources, cuts back.

Friday, February 8 -- 4:50 pm

COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

January's Foreclosure Explosion :

 

Homeowners are entering foreclosure at well over double the rate of the 1990s housing bust.

Friday, February 8 -- 1:17 pm

Sponsored by

Principal Reinstated After Outcry:

 

San Diego school board and superintendent decide against the controversial switch.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008 -- 3:25 pm

The Mayor Wants Answers:

 

Sanders asks SEDC for details on unsupervised bonuses to top officials.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008 -- 2:48 pm

Mayor to SEDC: Explain:

 

The Mayor's Office responds to our story today.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008 -- 2:04 pm

Sponsored By

SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

Survival Gone Fishin' -- Really:

 

My dad caught some salmon, my sister's getting hitched and the Great White North beckons.

Friday, June 27, 2008 -- 5:42 pm

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Here We Go Again:

 

City’s 'oily' alter ego has resurfaced thanks to recent conduct at SEDC.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008 -- 7:54 pm

CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

The People's Reporters:

 

Two voiceofsandiego.org reporters field your questions about their investigative reporting into San Diego redevelopment.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008 -- 7:26 pm

COMMENTARY: SLOP

And Now, the Port:

 

The agency joins a long list of San Diego governments willing to spend the public's money telling them how to vote.

Sunday, July 6, 2008 -- 6:57 pm

COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

Silent Spring:

 

The spring selling season has come and gone with no hint of the the typical seasonal rally in home prices.

Friday, July 4, 2008 -- 1:35 pm

MOST POPULAR STORIES:

Sponsored by


Home About Us Contact Us Copyright Privacy Policy Site Sponsorship
Copyright © 2008 voiceofsandiego.org. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use Privacy Statement