Commentary

BailoutWatch: I Can't Even Keep Up

By Rich Toscano



Wednesday, April 23, 2008 | When I wrote the first installment of BailoutWatch this January, I intended to post occasional updates to keep readers apprised of the ongoing housing bailout efforts. Well, the truth is that I haven't even been able to keep up.

That column wasn't even the first on the subject -- it had followed hot on the heels of this one. Since the January post, the bailout attempts have been coming fast and furious. They've also been getting progressively more irresponsible and transparent in their attempts to reward the very institutions that enabled the housing bubble in the first place.

Rich Toscano

Let's go through a selection of recent bailout-related developments.

Of course, everyone heard about the Federal Reserve's offer to guarantee $29 billion of investment bank Bear Stearns' debt. "Debt," here, includes the questionable and probably worthless mortgage-backed securities of exactly the type that brought Bear Stearns to the very edge of bankruptcy. This was nothing less than a public bailout of the reckless and overleveraged Wall Street firms that for years had pulled in huge profits by feeding the real estate mania.

This action was deemed necessary by our fearless leaders to prevent a financial market panic that might have occurred if Bear couldn't pay off its creditors or counterparties, the latter being the term for the folks on the other side of a derivatives trade. Now, more established Nerd's Eye Viewers may recall that I wrote a piece back in 2006 describing the risks that buyers of credit default swaps, which are derivatives that insure their buyers against loan defaults, might not get paid back in the event of default because the flawed models employed by default swap issuers. Many others were warning of this risk as well, but we were pretty much collectively ignored.

Well, the Bear Stearns bankruptcy was it -- a huge derivative counterparty failure. Instead of allowing it to happen, however, the Fed (one of the main parties doing the ignoring back in 2006) bailed out Wall Street by taking on the risk for itself.

"Itself," here, means the taxpayers, who are of course the ultimate source of funding for the Federal Reserve. Enjoy Bear's worthless mortgage-backed securities, because you are now effectively their proud owner.

The Fed also invoked an emergency provision in order to start lending directly to investment banks, many of which are now suffering due to their heavy involvement in the mortgage-backed securitization boom about which I wrote in detail a while back. Go ahead and read that article and then ask yourself whether these companies really deserve to be lent public funds to make things easier for them after they took such huge and obvious risks (and made a killing doing so, at least for a while).

This is all serious stuff. None other than former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker recently expressed concern that the Fed's actions "extended to the very edge of its lawful and implied power, transcending certain long-embedded central banking principles and practices."

Volcker was presumably referring to the Bear deal and the lending to investment banks. His statement didn't even address the fact that the Fed's target rate has been forced down well below the rate of inflation, so that savers across the nation can watch the real purchasing power of their savings disappear for the benefit of the housing bubble participants.

The Fed is certainly breaking out the big artillery, but other members of our government are hard at work on the bailout as well. In addition to raising the limit on conforming mortgages underwritten by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, regulators gave those two enormously leveraged operations the green light to go further into debt. (As I explained in the January installment, U.S. taxpayers are the implicit guarantors of this now-increased debt).

Also, the Federal Home Loan Bank system, a somewhat obscure quasi-government agency that was created during the Depression, has been lending billions (and has been cleared to lend a lot more) into the mortgage market. The FHLB, like Fannie and Freddie, isn't explicitly guaranteed by the government. But if said government won't even allow a private enterprise like Bear Stearns to fail, do you really think they will let a huge government-sponsored entity fail? The point being that the taxpayers are almost certainly on the hook for this money as well.

Finally, we have the "Foreclosure Prevention Act," or as I like to call it, the "Keep Homes Unaffordable Act," or possibly the "Give Taxpayer Money Directly to the Exact People That Caused The Problem Act." This legislation was already passed in the Senate. It includes, among others, the following fantastic ideas:



  • Over $25 billion in tax breaks for home building companies.
  • $4 billion for communities to buy up foreclosed homes.


  • A $7,000 tax credit for anyone who buys a foreclosed home.


I hope it's clear that most of these bailouts benefit not struggling homeowners, but the housing and financial industry companies that were big and hugely profitable players in the boom.

In general, trying to keep far-underwater homeowners in their homes is often of little help to them. People who owe significantly more than their homes are worth would in many cases be better off walking away and freeing themselves from a potential lifetime of overindebtedness. Keeping them locked into their unreasonably huge mortgages benefits the lenders more than the homeowners.

But much of the Foreclosure Prevention Act is even more blatant in that it targets taxpayer money directly at the homebuilders and lenders. The first item noted above, the tax break for homebuilders, is pretty self-explanatory. And the second two, the subsidies for buying foreclosures, increase the demand for foreclosed homes and thus help the lending institutions that own those homes get a better price. As an added bonus, this artificial demand also keeps foreclosed homes from returning to price levels that people would be able to afford without government subsidies.

I try to stay off the soapbox but this is getting a bit out of hand. I am astonished at the level of complacency on display as responsible people's earnings and savings are plundered with the express purpose of keeping homes unaffordable and rewarding the institutions that both contributed to and profited enormously from the housing bubble.

If you think this is all as ridiculous as I do, write your Congresscritters and let them know you don't want any part of it. I promise it will be off the soapbox and back to the charts after this.

Rich Toscano hosts the Nerd's Eye View on voiceofsandiego.org. He is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*; he also writes about San Diego real estate at Piggington's Econo-Almanac. Contact him at rtoscano@pcasd.com.




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Comments so far on this story:



1. Billy Bob Henry wrote on April 22, 2008 8:54 PM:
"Excellent article, and on the money. Don Bauder has written the exact same things you have at the Reader. Good stuff. The Bear Stearns bailout really gets my blood boiling, bailing out millionaire and billionaire Wall Street investment bankers, bankers that got rich on high leverage, high risk bets is the bottom of the barrel, and not a free market. The Feds should have alowed bear STearns to fail. Her eis another article with the same line of thought; link"

2. BuyerWillEPB wrote on April 23, 2008 11:59 AM:
"Benjamin Franklin and the other Founders are watching all this, and rolling in the grave."

3. Barnaby33 wrote on April 23, 2008 12:26 PM:
"And now for some cheerful commentary. Its gonna get way worse. The only hope we have is that the bond market says NO! Otherwise, based on passed experience Congress WILL bail out those most irresponsible."

4. Barnaby33 wrote on April 23, 2008 12:26 PM:
"And now for some cheerful commentary. Its gonna get way worse. The only hope we have is that the bond market says NO! Otherwise, based on passed experience Congress WILL bail out those most irresponsible."

5. Fred Williams wrote on April 23, 2008 2:00 PM:
"Outstanding article. We can only hope some of our congress-critters are reading and heeding. But we all know they are beholden to the financial institutions and big builders who fund their campaigns, and will sell out the citizens before letting those responsible for the bubble take a loss. As you wrote, the return to affordability will only be delayed, and those who are underwater will drown, while the crooks get bailed out."

6. aldante wrote on April 23, 2008 3:09 PM:
"30 years ago the mention of a housing bailout would have found the FBI investigating "Communist Sympathizers" and congressional hearings as to who would dare spread the idea in the first place. Why are people not more completely stunned by having their own money given to rich bankers and homeowners! I am p--------------ed"

7. ? wrote on April 23, 2008 3:54 PM:
"Which institutions fit the "Too Big to Fail" rule now?"

8. Clark wrote on April 23, 2008 9:34 PM:
"Politicians, Preachers and Bankers ARE the maffia."

9. JoeUpset wrote on April 24, 2008 2:18 AM:
"Rich Toscano constantly hits the nail on the head. I for one appreciate his efforts over many years to bring this to our attention. Frankly, I voted for Ron Paul. He is the ONLY one who seems to have any Economic Sense in Congress. However, whether it's Obama, Hillary or McCain we get, we only have a President in name only. This country has (for a long time) been run by the big banks, investment companies, big enterprises and their lobbies who pay them off. We (the people) need to forget about a label such as Democrat or Republican and vote for ANY ONE who is willing to fight the establishment on our behalf! This is why I am writing in Ron Paul for President and why I am contacting as many Congressmen and women as I can and raising hell about the situation. Let's STOP talking and START acting!"

10. Walters wrote on April 24, 2008 4:47 AM:
"I did contact my Senators before the vote on the latest bailout act (foreclosure prevention act). In his reply he highlighted the insignificant portions of the act that may have minor benefit to the average guy. However he did not mention at all the wall street bailout portion of the act which was ten times the size of the minor provisions he mentioned. Clearly not enough people were contacting him critical of the bailout. I find that I usually get an excuse for a sellout vote when these guys are being flooded with comments. This kind of bad policy seems to flourish when Washington thinks everyone is in the dark about their efforts to wreck the country."

11. Trader X wrote on April 24, 2008 9:16 AM:
"Homes will not remain unaffordable. Attempting to place a "floor" under property values will fail. Mathematically and empirically it is proven that price floors create surpluses and price ceilings create shortages. All this legislation will do besides waste taxpayers money and reward the guilty is to prolong and exacerbate the downturn in prices. What central bankers and policy makers are so desperately trying to hold off is the collapse of an estimated 500 trillion in derivatives backed by collateral whose value is collapsing. But that collapse has already happened but attempts are being made to maintain the illusion that the collateral underpinning this debt is at par or close to it. Welcome to John Law on a global scale. The absence of broad public outrage is intriguing. Immigration reform legislation was killed by a vociferous public. Where is that spirit?"

12. Trader X wrote on April 24, 2008 9:16 AM:
"Homes will not remain unaffordable. Attempting to place a "floor" under property values will fail. Mathematically and empirically it is proven that price floors create surpluses and price ceilings create shortages. All this legislation will do besides waste taxpayers money and reward the guilty is to prolong and exacerbate the downturn in prices. What central bankers and policy makers are so desperately trying to hold off is the collapse of an estimated 500 trillion in derivatives backed by collateral whose value is collapsing. But that collapse has already happened but attempts are being made to maintain the illusion that the collateral underpinning this debt is at par or close to it. Welcome to John Law on a global scale. The absence of broad public outrage is intriguing. Immigration reform legislation was killed by a vociferous public. Where is that spirit?"

13. Anthony wrote on April 24, 2008 10:10 AM:
"To Trader X: "Immigration reform legislation was killed by a vociferous public. Where is that spirit?" This simply demonstrates the racist and xenophobic nature of our Congress and the more vocal minority of its constituents. These are the same people who a while back voted for racial segregation in the classrooms. They generally do not care who screws them, as long it's not the "damn Mexicans". Lol."

14. stayathomemom wrote on April 24, 2008 10:34 AM:
"What is wrong with us Americans? Our dream home was sold at auction this morning in FL. It was basically stolen by a company that is a big supporter of a group that wants to give homes to minorities. Is anyone concerned that most housing market issues are on the borders of this country? FL, CA, TX? Does anyone care that the Federal Reserve is a group of private rich people? Do we remember how hard Andrew Jackson fought in the late 1800's to keep the banks from being private and having power. Are we not concerned about new world order? Call me crazy but "They" are trying to get us on our knees and not to pray but to bow to them. What gives Americans? Check out "Freedom to Facism" - it's true. We are living deceived."

15. bubba99 wrote on April 24, 2008 11:55 AM:
"The bailout of Bear was necessary because the risk of cascading counter party failure was/is real. These geniuses have created financial instrument that even they do not understand. In keeping with the idea that everything must be leveraged to maximize return, each dollar of actual debt and interest is traded over 20 times in various credit default swaps (CDS). Bear's failure could result in a half a trillion in cascading CDS failures. If anyone of the 20 or so parties involved in each CDO were to fail everyone below also risks failure in an atomic like explosion. These in turn would drag other geniuses into the frey and cause additional failures elsewhere. Unfortunately, through deregulation (meaning allowing banks and investment housed to merge) we have allowed wall street's greed to bring the entire system to"

16. Walters wrote on April 24, 2008 1:39 PM:
"I should have pointed out how easy it is to contact your senators. Just go to senate.gov and fill out a form. For best effect mention a specific bill currently in play. The number of coherent comments that I have been reading over the web in this subject area is phenomenal. It would be nice if our congress could benefit from all the common sense in the general public. I have been sending at least one email a week to my senators since they need so much help in making any sensible decisions. I actually have seen some improvement in their thinking, especially after the 2006 elections."

17. Jake wrote on April 24, 2008 2:41 PM:
"Federal Reserve Chairman is so much preoccupied with 'averting' the next Great Depression that he forgets much more dangerous historical precedents. While Great Depression was not a picnic, at the same time Wiemar Republic was steadily moving toward fascism by debasing it's own currency and wiping out its middle class savings via inflation (rings any bells Mr Bernanke?), USSR was finishing destruction of its economy and farming industry by "regulating" its economy into a complete disaster (want to convert Federal Reserve into GOSPLAN Mr Paulson?). Of course Mr Bernanke is not stupid, but so were Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels and Lenin. I bet any one of them had more published works on economy then Bernanke will ever do, yet their good meaning theories led to the worst economical and humanitarian disasters in the human history. All these scholars including Bernanke had one thing in common - they all believed"

18. mr-transistor wrote on April 24, 2008 4:15 PM:
"Trader X... I agree with you completely. This derivatives house of cards has been allowed to build for way too long and the $500T collapse is being stifled as quietly as possible by the Fed and Treasury which is influencing current "bail-out" legislation. To answer your question about "where's the spirit?"... Unfortunately, a majority of our American public does not understand the economics of the situation and is not willing to take the time to try. When the situation finally affects enough of the public directly (ie. crushing inflation, job losses) it will be too late to do anything about it."

19. Sparky wrote on April 24, 2008 6:17 PM:
"Hey Congressional representatives OF THE PEOPLE (or is it "of the highest bidders"?). Read my lips: NO BAILOUTS!"

20. John wrote on April 24, 2008 7:33 PM:
"It is all too true. All the politians in both parties are just sickening, and the Fed, the front man for the Commercial Banks, Wall Street, and Investment Banks. In the last 10 years I have withnessed and learned that this financil game we all play is completely rigged against the general public. We have the joy of eating cake, while the politically well connected plunder this nations finances and get off completely free."

21. Walters wrote on April 25, 2008 5:35 AM:
"I hope that my senators in spite of being sellouts to their campaign contributors will also have some personal pride left. That they enjoy being respected and maintaining their celebrity status. The reason I persist in contacting my senators in spite of their extremely poor voting records is to show them how to keep the respect of the public. This may be a foolish hope based on the antics of luminaries in the senate like Larry Craig. What other alternative is there aside from waiting for them to be voted out."

22. Billy Bob Henry wrote on April 25, 2008 11:37 AM:
"Sparky-for once you got it right, I am proud of you junior, very proud."

23. Richard Rider wrote on April 26, 2008 6:51 AM:
"Scary. People who normally fight in these comments section all agree -- including me. No bailouts. Not for fat cat corporations or overextended home purchasers. All such subsidies simply become part or our rapidly growing national debt. We'll all be paying interest on it forever -- or the govt will use the Wiemar Republic technique of repaying the loans with essentially worthless dollars, thanks to rapid expansion of the money supply. Either way, we all lose."

24. Richard Rider wrote on April 26, 2008 7:05 AM:
"One aspect of the mortgage meltdown problem seldom discussed: As far as I know, real estate is the only area where loans are nonrecourse -- as a RE borrower, you guess wrong, you walk away. Toscano, perhaps you could address just why this is so. Is the nonrecourse nature of RE first mortgage loans required by law? As I see it, the nonrecourse nature of such loans makes for reckless real estate investing and excessive speculation at the expense of others -- especially when the "others" are the taxpayers who too often insure the loans. BTW, this excellent Toscano RE column gets prominent mention in my next "Rider Rant" distribution."

25. Rocky wrote on April 26, 2008 8:19 AM:
"STOP THE BITCHING!! Just take some of that cash you got laying around and buy property, buy houses, buy Condo's, because there just ain't no bad property in California. This is the opportunity of a life time. There is still time, but the window is closing, so jump in there now and start buying. What, you ain't got no cash? Your got a new SUV? Sell it! Buy a vacant lot! Got a boat in the driveway? Sell it! Buy a Condo!Got a motor home and a bunch of Off-Road toys? Sell em! Buy another house or a couple of vacant lots. Get creative and be successful. Let this "out of control" screwed up system work for you. So get in there and make this a real "Buyout!!!"

26. Lee wrote on April 26, 2008 9:12 AM:
"Congress is only concerned with votes. They need to seen as caring. Those companies whom gave bad loans should be punished(eliminated) People would lose jobs. Those whom bought homes they could not qualify for should be on their own. Congress told lenders to be more liberal, so more folks could benefit from owning a home. So now congress is covering their tracks. We taxpayers can afford it. The more they do the worse the situation will be. During the rapid rise, the media cried about affordable housing. This correction would provide that, but would hurt people whom purchased what they should not have bought. The lenders should have never allowed all the fliping, but hey they get a commission and then sell the loan off, no harm no foul. Please stop the fixes we can't afford it."

27. Christian Lindgren wrote on April 27, 2008 2:39 PM:
"What would have happened if FED didn't help Bear Stern ? If we have experienced a financial system were no onetrust each other ? Did FED really had any options ? I'm not defending the very act, just wondering what could have happened if they allowed Bear Sterns to go bankrupt - Financial collaps in the US and just after that , the rest of the world ? Sorry for the somewhat bad english here but I'm from sweden. The financial situation in the US is also influencing me (and all the swedish and european people for that matter), a lot."

28. Billy Bob Henry wrote on April 28, 2008 8:36 AM:
"27. Christian Lindgren wrote on April 27, 2008 2:39 PM: "What would have happened if FED didn't help Bear Stern ?.............. The exact same thing that would happen to every other high risk, high leverage gambler, they would go BK. Since when do BILLIONAIRES get to have privatized profits and SOCIALIZED risks????? Please, speak up Christian. Where can I go and play high stakes gamlbling and if I win I get to KEEP the money, but if I lose the taxpayers have to pay????????"

29. Kalena wrote on April 28, 2008 9:52 AM:
"Good question, Christian, and as much as I despise these bailouts, would our 401(k) retirement accounts all be worth zero if nothing had been done? Everyone's retirements are in the market these days, ugh. I'm guessing Rocky is a real estate broker (urging us to buy)... but as anyone who's checked into it knows, no one is offering loans for less than 30% down.... and prices are still way inflated. Half a mil for a rundown shack Clairemont!?? I'd rather rent the rest of my life. Please don't swear off this topic, Mr. Toscano! Stay on top of the soapbox!"

30. Online Petition wrote on April 29, 2008 7:21 AM:
"Here is a site that started up recently. Essentially, it's a petition that may be in vain given the powers driving this political movement, but it is worth the 20 seconds it takes to sign it online... Angryrenter.com"


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