Predictions Contest
Published: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 11:00 AM PDT
This is just ridiculous. The U-T quotes this guy every month when the housing prices numbers come out. Every month he makes something of a hedged prediction. This one's a classic.
"The market needs to get its footing and it's not going to get its footing until a bottom has been determined," Karevoll said.
He predicted that San Diego's overall median may slip another $45,000 and bottom out at around $350,000.
"If that happens between now and summer, I think there is also an equal chance that the median could go back over $500,000 by the end of the year," he said. "That's how crazy it is out there."
But that prediction assumes San Diego is not in a recession, even if the rest of country is. If a serious economic downturn develops, Karevoll said, many homeowners may lose their jobs, default on their homes and extend the real estate woes well into 2009.
Really?
Inspired by that performance, I'm going to try my hand at this prediction thing. But here I'm going to put on my weather expert hat:
I’m pretty sure that if there’s significant high pressure systems in the region, we’ll have warm weather over coming days. But if a storm front comes, it’ll depend on whether it hits us directly or not, if it hits us directly, we’ll get rain. If not, we might have partly cloudy skies.
All around, I know I said it would be sunny not long ago, but it looks like it will either be sunny, partly cloudy, or rainy going forward. Unless, of course, it’s just overcast -- which is a possibility as well.
What did you think? Totally nailed it, right. I wish I could put money on that one.
So here's a challenge to my snarkiest readers. Please post your equally incisive and risky predictions -- send me an e-mail if you'd like. I want the best examples of really going out on a limb based on your diligent research.
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Comments so far on this story: 1. Edgar wrote on April 16, 2008 11:42 AM: "Scott, predictions on this particular subject, the housing implosion, or on any subject of interest to your readers? Thanks." 2. Coast Watcher wrote on April 16, 2008 12:22 PM: "I'm pretty sure in my next life I'll be a weather reporter. Especially in Southern California where it doesn't matter if you're ever right. But then again I might work for mainstream media or a developer and never have to make a committed, authentic statement of any kind. FOr now I think I'll leave the predictions to Madame Jenny and the other palmists in town. They are almost always right, about something." 3. Prognosticator wrote on April 16, 2008 1:49 PM: "I expect Mike Aguirre to lose the coming election, or at least to be in the bottom four candidates. That is, unless the vote for the other candidates is split and all Aguirre's supporters come out to the primary, which might cause him to win -- although there are signs support for Aguirre eroded among the loyalists who voted him in, which could mean he no longer holds that slim majority. Of course, all this could change if he scores a very well-timed legal victory in the pension case, in which case people who determined he was a poor litigator might change their minds and decide to vote for him. So there's a pretty good chance he'll lose, but anything could happen between now and election day that could turn the tide in his favor." 4. Dale Peterson wrote on April 16, 2008 3:56 PM: "I predict: That a La Jollan seal will be named public enemy #1. That Ben Hueso can't name the companies that are in the last 100, of his famous Fortune 600. That constituents will be shy about shaking John Hartley's hand. That elected city leaders will suggest major capital projects, when we can't even cover our current bills. That the city will announce that crime figures have gone down, when we no that ain't possibly true. That appealing attorney, Kerry Steigerwalt, will pulically answer why he purchased the cheesy Public Law Center. That the Padres will acquire some cheap, over-the-hill player and market the acquistion as if we just got Ted Williams. That someone from the Mayor's office will finally answer a Donna Frye question with a straight, honest response. That it is about time for an airport study." 5. Christopher Hall wrote on April 16, 2008 7:23 PM: "Yesterday, I listened to the report about the seismic events predicted for California. What a wonderful set of predictions!Before I turn 69 I am likely to experience an earthquake.Having felt the Northridge quake in 1994, I must say, I'm very concerned.Can you imagine being concerned each and every second, one after the next, for 30 years? That's almost 1 billion concerns heaped upon all the others I have everyday.How can I survive?Well, a few seconds have just passed, and things are OK. Now a few more have passed, and as you read this, more for all of us will have trickled on by too...Oh no, I'm wrong!I'm feeling worse, I screwed up!Each second that passes is one that strengthens the next as an opportunity for disaster.I'm doomed to existential hell!Waiting for moment after moment, I feel as I shall die when the time comes!" 6. Billy Bob Henry wrote on April 16, 2008 8:16 PM: ""If that happens between now and summer, I think there is also an equal chance that the median could go back over $500,000 by the end of the year...---.....Bwaha too funny! $350K by summer and then within 3-4 months back up to $500K-or an increase of 45% in 3 months, for an annualized increase of 180%. Where do they come up with these clowns???????" 7. Fred Williams wrote on April 17, 2008 6:33 AM: "The next Mayor of San Diego has a 99% chance of being a white male with hair. While there is a probability of Eric Bidwell having the longest hair of any of the candidates, and of Steve Francis having the best coiffed hair, it is a virtual certainty that Jerry Sanders will have the fairest hair. There is only a hair's chance of a non-white-male winning the race, and no chance of a hairless candidate prevailing. The chances of Francis taking over all or part of Bidwell's dreadlocks, along with his political positions, are good." 8. Happy "Effing&quo wrote on April 26, 2008 6:45 AM: "The Federal Government will bail out all those who lied about their income to buy a house."
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