'The Weakest Point in a Weakening Market'

Published: Monday, June 2, 2008 5:59 PM PDT

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In my Thursday post about the condo project in National City that had 32 units auctioned two weeks ago, I quoted from a story I wrote in 2006:

Real estate advisor Gary London said National City Boulevard is going to "redevelop with gusto" and the project will be right in the heart of that.

Plus, "sometimes price is the ultimate amenity," he said of the project.

London wrote me today to ask if I'd give him the chance to disagree with his 2006 self. Here's how that went:

[Bayview] Tower targeted an moderate income consumer, a very different focus than the several other projects proposed for the National City Blvd. corridor, all of which were taking the opportunity of redevelopment to re-face National City. At the lowest anticipated price points relative to all of the proposed projects, and as a conversion, [Bayview] was most exposed to the real estate cycle change. In the end, they were the only project able to deliver, but it was the weakest project in a weakening market.

Essentially, National City (and Chula Vista) missed its 'window of opportunity'. Projects which were in the entitlement/pre-construction stages were taking an exceptionally lengthy time to come on line. I do not expect this market to recover in the foreseeable future to the point where new projects will be feasible, and certainly not until the central San Diego urban markets have stabilized and recovered. Think six to ten years.

-- KELLY BENNETT