A Depressing Shot of Gin

Published: Thursday, October 30, 2008 4:35 PM PDT

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The local economy sunk deeper in September and will stay negative through the first half of next year, reported University of San Diego economist Alan Gin in his September index today.

From Gin's index:

What is needed to turn the economy around both locally and nationally is stability in the housing market. ... a bottom in the housing market in not likely to be reached until the latter part of 2009, and home prices are not expected to increase until 2010 at the earliest.

Surprisingly, the national economy measure in the index was positive, despite news of the global economic crisis. Gin expects next month's index to show that trouble:

Local stock prices fell in September in a prelude to the disastrous results to come in October. ... It is very likely that a recession will be declared for the national economy; in fact, we may be there already.

You can see Gin's index here.

-- KELLY BENNETT

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