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The Government Panic

Published: Wednesday, November 12, 2008 5:04 PM PST



Can you hear that? Close your eyes. Listen close.

I'm not certain, but I'm pretty sure it's the sound of government bean counters shrieking.

Governments are always trying to push a pig through a small hose. There's always a deficit. There's always a volley and then the budgets get put to bed and no one ever really knows how the crisis was handled. But there's something different happening now. There's a palpable realism buttressing some of the news lately. Over the past few days, we've been treated to a host of revelations about the poor shape of local municipalities' finances. Some have been more subtle than others.

The loudest shriek actually came several weeks ago when the mayor warned of a steep drop in revenue and a $43 million gap between what the city planned to spend for the last few months of the year and the amount of revenue that is actually going to come in.

Since then, we've gotten other indications that people are really worried in a way that's unprecedented in recent times. Did you not notice, for instance, County Supervisor Greg Cox's quiet disclosure -- during the cacophony of Election Day no less -- that he and his colleagues would be cutting off their $10 million slush fund distributions this year?

This is nothing short of shocking. Hundreds of organizations around town of various merit just lost thousands of dollars they've gotten for years -- doled out by individual supervisors like kings demanding tribute.

Done. Outsky. Dried up (at least for now). Unbelievable. Cox undoubtedly is looking at next year's budget numbers and getting a little antsy. He clearly does not want to have anything to do with the recrimination that would come if he tried to cut services but also tried to maintain the stream of funds they send to their favorite nonprofits around town.

These are the funds that have made Supervisor Pam Slater-Price an opera star and sent her colleague, Ron Roberts, to China. All the supervisors enjoy immense gratitude when they hand out the money to all kinds of groups -- from those refurbishing ball parks in the East County, to those run mobile health clinics. Make no mistake, for the supervisors to forego this privilege, there must be something ugly in their books.

There' s more. In case you missed it, check out Kelly Bennett's story from the other day. Local cities get a big part of their revenue from sales taxes and a big part of the rest from property taxes. All of the officials she talked to from North County to South are worried.

Now we have the pension system back in the news. Again, it was never the health of the pension system that was the worry. What worried us was how much it cost to keep it healthy. And it's one thing to have declining revenue -- it's another, quite troubling, thing to see costs rise at the same time. That's exactly what we're talking about here. If the value of the city's pension system plummets, and stays down, we'll have to pay more each year from the city's budget to keep the system healthy.

That would be fine if, say, there was a ton of money coming in from, say, a mania in the housing market.

Yeah. This is going to be a rough ride.

-- SCOTT LEWIS




Editor´s Choice
The reader comments you won't want to miss. (Editor's Choice selection do not represent the views of the editors. They are comments that seem to add to the discussion as opposed to less productive insults or arguments.)

Didja notice that the mayor's budget cuts didn't include downtown redevelopment ? He never mentioned that the City is owed $259 million by the Redevelopment Agency(source-IBA report on redevelopment debt). Downtown share of the debt is $116 million.. It seems Sanders thinks beautification projects like the North Embarcadero ,are more important than the seven branch libraries and the ten rec centers he wants to close . The Embarcadero project is budgeted for $17 million for this year. Postponing it could save the libaries, the rec centers plus the fire dept and police dept reductions that Sanders proposes. And what about the $63 million that is reserved for a new downtown library? Does it make sense to close seven branch libraries while setting aside $63 million for a libary that may never be built ?

Posted by mel shapiro | reply to this comment
November 13, 2008 8:04 am

I don't why everybody is in panic. According to Diamond Jim Madaffer, the market downturn this year is nothing more than a cyclical thing. Yes, the same financial genius who got his water turned off by the city when he failed to pay his bills says not to worry, and that the global recession we're all heading into won't really affect the long-term fiscal health of the city or its pension.

Posted by Larry | reply to this comment
November 13, 2008 8:33 am

I wish there were a simple solution. Those who suggested bankrupcy in the early stages of the financial mess (when only fraud was involved) may have been closer to the truth. It is not only politicians who incur indebtedness that will strangle our children financially, but the voters as well. All of the bond issues which get approved for "nice to have" or "nice to feel" reasons will also land on our children. Voters, including politicians, seem oblivious to the idea that the bonded indebtedness of the government is much like student loans or credit card debt....except it is not theirs. It's the debt dumped on the next generation. When I look at the new City Council, I fear for that generation even more.

Posted by josil | reply to this comment
November 15, 2008 4:06 pm

10 Comments so far on this story...

So can we finally put to bed the local think tank fiction that san diegans are perpetually demanding services that they are unwilling to pay for? The reality is that local government is a compensation, job security and benefits machine run by and for the employees that shelter under the civil service umbrella of protection. Mike Aguirre was dead-on in his analysis of the comprehensive conflicts of interest that pervade city culture. Fact is that most of the city budget gets dumped into the black hole of compensation and pensions. The new council must look at outsourcing, especially water and wastewater. That way these stand alone budgets will convert into revenue centers contributing to the general fund. No tears will be shed when this toxic city council moves on. Scott Peterson's recent plum appointment was absolutely cynical and disgusting. No doubt he will use his new taxpayer supported job as a platform.

Posted by Brother Chris | reply to this comment
November 13, 2008 8:03 am

Well here is some good news: All the money Aguirre spent on the Pension Fiasco, well that case was just dismissed. Now there will be no more money spent battling a losing cause. Thank goodness we will have a city attorney that will make better decisions and let the CC and mayor run the City. Now all we need is to get the mayor to be honest with the citizens and tell them it is time they pay their fair share!

Posted by Ron Weiss | reply to this comment
November 13, 2008 2:18 pm

No, actually the case was not dismissed. Aguirre filed an appeal in the middle of the case, and the 4th circuit ruled they don't want to hear the appeal until the whole case is tried. That is night and day different than saying the case was dismissed, as has been screamed in headlines hear and in the UT. I assume you missed the article hear a day or two ago showing how if Sanders had successfully mortgaged city assets like the police station to inject $674 million into the pension fund for them to invest, the city would be down another $135 million (since the pension is down 20%). Aguirre blocked that deal because it was illegal, saving Sanders from an enormous mistake. Do you think Sanders will give Aguirre any credit for saving his ass on that?

Posted by Paul | reply to this comment
November 14, 2008 6:34 am

Don't try to reason with the unreasonable. RW is losing his pension so he is naturally upset.

Posted by Billy Bob Henry | reply to this comment
November 15, 2008 12:31 pm

As long as we have a system where politicians can borrow money today and know that their terms will be expired before the bills come due, we're going to have a mess on our hands. We're a spend now, pay later society and our elected officials reflect the voters who elected them. Why should any politician care how much debt the state or the city builds up as long as they will be out of office when its time to pay the piper? I'd love to hear others ideas on how to fix this major flaw in our political system.

Posted by Watcher | reply to this comment
November 13, 2008 5:01 pm

Take a tip from a stock market search for quality issues. No longterm future debt shall be contracted by shortterm politicians that exceeds 25% of future revenues. Debt to equity must never exceed 25%. This would allow for cyclic variations in the future revenues, such as lower property taxes, income taxes, sales tax, etc. Of course, such a low Debt to equity would constrain public projects, services and compensation. Further more, the 25% ratio would likely be altered by greedy politicians upwards to 150% or more unless strictly codified and enforced. People would have to limit their wants and desires,---heaven forbid---to actual needs. What a concept! Too bad it won't work in real life because of human frailty.

Posted by Richard | reply to this comment
November 16, 2008 12:58 pm

A defined step is to get your credit report; there are numerous websites, like Annualcreditreport.c It isn't a wise move to go for pay sites that have an extremely annoying and banal band on TV – you know who we mean. The law makes it so you can get your report from Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion once a year for free, no payday loans necessary. Link to read for more details: link

Posted by PhilipF | reply to this comment
May 5, 2009 10:49 pm


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Scott Lewis on Politics

The Scott Lewis on Politics blog, abbreviated cleverly as SLOP, is a collection of observations, insights and the occasional scoop on public affairs in San Diego. Please feel free to e-mail Scott at scott.lewis@voiceofsandiego.org.


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