Reads for the Weekend

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Burnt out on Michael Jackson biographies? Check out some of these stories I've not had a chance to post this week:

The Economist throws water on the idea that slowing declines in the Case-Shiller index means the worst is over for American housing. (Thanks to reader CM for passing this and the CAR snafu along.)

Why the long faces, Economist? One reason: federal agencies announced this week that defaults on prime loans (the least risky ones) more than doubled in the first quarter compared to a year earlier. (Jim the Realtor says he thinks of me now when he reads about defaulting loans. What a reputation. But check out my recent story about the trouble lurking in subprime's wake locally if you missed it.)

The New York Times chronicled the fascinating drama at the Four Seasons, including the trouble in our own backyard. If you're getting as intrigued by hotel real estate as I am, this one's definitely worth a read.

In our pages, my colleague Will Carless tells of a local affordable housing developer's trouble with the law in other place, and Rich Toscano gives us a graphical look at the changes in local home prices.

Happy Fourth of July from this Canadian-American!

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, July 2 -- 6:55 pm

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Sifting Through the Snafu

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Ray Ewing from Sandicor, keepers of the local Multiple Listings Service, told me today it wasn't Sandicor's fault that the big statewide trade group, the California Association of Realtors, reported faulty info for San Diego's sales counts.

The uncomfortable error showed up in the Wall Street Journal yesterday afternoon.

For his part, Robert Kleinhenz, CAR's deputy chief economist, told me today he wasn't trying to point fingers at the local MLS folks, but that whenever an MLS changes its system -- like our region's did a year ago -- there are bugs to be worked out. I asked whether the erroneous 89 percent year-over-year increase in home sales that the group had reported had stood out in the economists' review of the numbers before they reported them.

"Normally that would seem like a truly unusual figure," he said. "But if you if you take a look around the state, one of the issues is that all this is happening against the backdrop where -- in places like San Diego and Riverside -- we have been seeing some fairly large year-over-year gains."

In this case, the gain was considerably smaller than first reported. CAR will be revising its 89 percent number to about 6.5 percent at the end of the month, he said.

"Clearly there was a data error," Kleinhenz said. "This happens to be one of the larger discrepancies that we've run into. ... While it's large, it satisfied our error checking processes and I think they're adequate."

Update: The original version of this post incorrectly stated that the gain "wasn't considerably smaller than first reported." We regret the error.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, July 2 -- 7:30 am

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Mortgage Refis Extended

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For San Diego, one of the big sticking points on the federal homeowner-help refinancing program has been a restriction on how far underwater borrowers can be.

The plan announced in February was initially offered to homeowners whose mortgages were worth 105 percent of their homes' current value.

Now the option to refinance will be extended to homeowners who are even further underwater.

Today, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan announced in Las Vegas that the plan will expand to include those 125 percent underwater on their mortgage but still current on their payments.

(More than 30 percent of all homeowners in San Diego County who have mortgages are underwater. Note: We're not talking about the loan modification, payment-reducing part of the federal Making Home Affordable program here, but the option to refinance the loans if you're underwater.)

There is a catch: The borrowers' loans must be owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both agencies have loan lookup programs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) to determine whether you qualify. I'm checking to find out what other restrictions might apply to the refinancing program and I'll let you know what I hear.

I called a couple of people for their takes on the new restrictions.

"That's good, that'll help a lot of people in San Diego -- that makes a lot of sense," said Mark Goldman, a local mortgage broker and SDSU real estate professor. "If somebody is upside-down, and can't refinance, they're more likely to walk away from their house."

Gary Laturno, a local real estate attorney and recent host of our Savvy & Sage series, said he'd heard many criticisms that the 105 percent guideline didn't do enough. "This will certainly make a lot more refis possible," Laturno said.

Here's more on the plan, from the HUD press release:

Making Home Affordable, a comprehensive plan to stabilize the U.S. housing market, was first announced by the Administration on February 18. In just a few months, more than 200,000 borrowers have received offers for trial loan modifications, tens of thousands of refinances and trial modifications are under way, and informational mailings about the program have been sent to more than one million borrowers who may be eligible.

What do you think of the expanded program? Leave a comment below (if you're not in Survival, head over there to share your thoughts).

-- KELLY BENNETT

Wednesday, July 1 -- 1:19 pm

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Realtors Group Caught in Data Snafu

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Last week I was driving and heard KPBS's Dwane Brown tell me that San Diego home prices had risen 90 percent over the year.

Um, what?

That was the teaser for a story that came on a bit later, when Brown reported that sales, not prices, had risen 90 percent. The numbers came from the California Association of Realtors.

Still, the number seemed really high. Sales have been going up for the last 11 months, but 90 percent?

I freaked out then, but forgot to look it up when I got back to my office.

Turns out the CAR got it wrong.

This afternoon, a savvy reader e-mailed me a link to a Wall Street Journal story.

I love the headline:

Home Sales Didn't Soar in San Diego: Data Had Errors, Group Says

The group will make "sharp downward revisions" to its recent months' estimates of sales in the San Diego region, according to the story. WSJ reporter Bob Hagerty interviewed CAR's deputy chief economist, Robert Kleinhenz, who said the group will announce its revisions in late July along with the numbers for June sales.

The differences are stark:

The California Realtors have reported that San Diego sales in April were up about 63% from a year earlier. Mr. Kleinhenz said that is expected to be revised downward to a gain of about 20%. For May, the group reported an 89% increase in sales in San Diego; that will be slashed to about 6.5%, the economist said.

That 89 percent is what I'd heard on the radio last week. Turns out that was a little high.

Kleinhenz said the hiccup came from San Diego's MLS, which changed computer systems and has been sending faulty data to the state association over the past year. Here's how they found the quirk:

Thomas Lawler, an independent economist in Leesburg, Va., who tracks home sales nationwide, raised questions about the San Diego data in a report last week. Mr. Lawler noted that the numbers reported by the Realtors vastly exceeded those from MDA DataQuick, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif., and other sources.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 30 -- 7:51 pm

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The Next Porto Vista Question

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When I was writing about the Porto Vista Hotel and Suites last week, I tried to figure out at what point the development's 193 units had changed from a hotel-apartments mix -- as it was originally planned -- to all hotel rooms, as it appeared to be when I investigated.

The project was approved in 2004 based on the assumption that it would match the Little Italy neighborhood's blueprint for development, but the project's apparent shift to the 193-room hotel changes the neighborhood's resident mix and bucks the plans that were vetted by the community.

I was curious to know how an altered project would affect city revenues. Hotel developers pay less upfront development impact fees than do apartment and condo developers. Did the project's developer, Siry Investments, pay development impact fees for an apartment-hotel project, or just a hotel project?

I got an answer to that yesterday from Derek Danziger, CCDC spokesman.

Siry Investments made all of the required fee payments in line with the hotel-apartment mix that was planned when the project was finished, Danziger said.

The developer paid more than $147,900 in development impact fees because of the mix of uses, Danziger said. Had the project just been a hotel, the developer would only have had to pay about $10,000 in those fees, he said.

The project's official plans on file with the city show it as having 74 studio apartments and 119 hotel rooms: a total of 193 units.

When I investigated the story last week, hotel staff and a representative of the developer said there are 193 rooms there. The apartments were nowhere to be found.

But it appears the developer paid the higher costs commensurate with its residential-commercial mix, even though it's not clear that the mix of uses has been kept up since the building opened last year.

Development impact fees are assessed at a higher rate for residential uses than for commercial uses. The funds go for infrastructure uses like building parks and paying for fire protection -- functions for which residential units generate more demand and from which residential units receive more benefits, according to city policies.

There's another piece of my city revenues question that I'm trying to get answered: How much transient occupancy tax (hotel-room tax) money has the city been collecting from this project? Has the developer been charging hotel-room taxes on all 193 rooms and passing that along to the city, even though the project is officially only supposed to have 119 rooms?

Rachel Laing, spokeswoman for the Mayor's Office, is helping me answer that. Here's an e-mail I received from her this morning, which gets at part of the answer:

According to someone in the Comptroller's Office, the only way to be absolutely certain they're paying TOT on every hotel room is through audits they perform approximately every two years on every hotel in the city. Each month of operation since the last audit is covered in these audits -- meaning there is no unaudited period.

Laing visited the hotel's website, which (weirdly) states the hotel has 203 rooms. She clicked on the various room types to see whether the room tax would show up. Here's what she found:

If you try to book in any of the various room types, it includes TOT charges, so they're at least charging the tax; whether they're turning it over to the city is what the audit will determine.

Laing said the Comptroller's Office is checking when the last audit was. I'll let you know what I hear back.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 30 -- 11:38 am

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Prices (Still) Down 42.3 Percent From Peak

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In April, local home prices were down 42.3 percent from the peak, according to the newest Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index released this morning.

The aggregate index fell just slightly from March, so slightly that the index was down about the same amount from the peak as it was in March's index.

The pace at which home prices declined slowed in the latest index, too. In March, the year-over-year drop for the aggregate index was 22 percent. In April, prices were down 20 percent from the same month in 2008.

The index, which tracks price changes in the same homes as they sell over the years, showed similar trends in other markets nationwide:

"The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. ... "While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.

"The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market," Mr. Blitzer commented.

Broken into tiers by the price the homes had previously sold for, all of the tiers showed smaller year-over-year declines than they did in March.

The lowest priced tier (homes priced under $267,446) fell by 25.2 percent compared to April 2008. That tier was down 52.2 percent from its peak in June 2006.

The middle tier, homes priced between $267,446 and $395,965, fell by 15.6 percent year-over-year and 40.9 percent from the November 2005 peak.

And the high tier, homes priced higher than $395,965, fell 17.9 percent year-over-year and 33.6 percent from the peak.

If you want to compare those to the declines in March, you can go back to last month's report here, or see the trends in some graphs Rich Toscano created last month.

We'll have more on these numbers later today. In the meantime, what are you seeing in this market? Are you trying to buy? Sell? Get a loan? Share your experiences in the comments below (go to Survival if you're not already there to comment), or drop me an e-mail at kelly.bennett@voiceofsandiego.org.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 30 -- 8:54 am

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Survival's Tube Time

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Here's something new:

I'll be appearing on NBC 7/39, our media partners, each Thursday afternoon to share what's new in the Survival in San Diego blog. Yesterday was our first one, a quick recap of a couple of stories I've covered this week. Here's the clip:

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 26 -- 12:07 pm

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'The Outlook Is Better Than Just Two Months Ago'

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The local economy increased again in May, largely thanks to a big gain in local consumer confidence, according to the latest USD economic index released today.

April's increase broke a two-year string of year-over-year declines in Gin's index. Along with the boost in consumer confidence, local stock prices increased and so did the outlook for the national economy. Building permits also logged a slight increase.

The negative categories were related to unemployment and help wanted advertising.

It's still too early, after two months of increases, to call it a trend. If the index is positive in June, that would mark three months in a row, and would be the traditional signal of a "bottom for San Diego's economy," wrote Alan Gin, a USD economist. But because economic conditions lag the index's indicators, the actual trough for the economy would be six to 12 months in the future, he wrote.

Here's Gin:

At this point, cautious optimism needs to be exercised with respect to the local economy. ...

As was mentioned in last month's report, the rebound is likely to be relatively weak, given that the positive numbers in the leading indicators have not been very strong. Finally, even after the economy turns around, unemployment is still likely to be high as businesses tend to be cautious in terms of hiring coming out of a slump. Still, the outlook is better than just two months ago, and a flat local economy is better than one that is declining.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 25 -- 3:55 pm

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Auction in Oceanside

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You might remember a coastal project called Oceanside Terraces from my recent story on Oceanside's housing market.

In that story, I found a sharp contrast between the frenzy for inland, low-priced foreclosures and stalled coastal projects. I also mentioned that the recently completed downtown project called Oceanfront Terraces is looking to auction its remaining condos in the next couple of months, a sign that sales on the regular market are going slower than expected. The project is near the Coaster tracks and the city's coastal shops and restaurants.

The North County Times discussed that auction -- scheduled for July 19 -- in a story today. Here's a snippet:

After selling fewer than 10 condominiums in the Oceanside Terraces development three blocks from the Oceanside Pier, the developer is turning to an auction house to off-load the remaining 29.

Starting bids on the condos range from $295,000 to $625,000, or $151 to $244 per square foot. Ken Stevens, the auctioneer, said comparable condos have been selling for 30 to 40 percent more. ...

Stevens said Janez Properties Inc., a lead partner in the development, stands to take a substantial loss. Janez representatives didn't return a call seeking comment.

A lot of these auctions have benchmark prices that must be met that are much higher than those starting bid prices, in case you're curious.

In my story, I spoke with Roberta Murphy, a North County real estate broker, who had previously been selling units at the project. She said the trouble came from the difficulties buyers have found with getting loans at the high end. That, along with the revised rules for how many units in a project must be lived in by their owners, whittles the buyer pool to those with large down payments or all cash to pay for the waterfront units, Murphy told me.

I heard from Murphy this morning on the project:

These last few months we were limited to cash offers that could close quickly. At the end, we had several cash buyers offering over $300 per square foot (who could close within days) and they were rejected by the builder.

In today's San Diego real estate market, if financing is in place and prices are reasonable, there is no need for properties to go to auction.

We still don't know why these offers were rejected--other than the builder and auctioneer believe they will be able to do better via the auction process. 

We will likely be there with clients.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Wednesday, June 24 -- 3:24 pm

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The Great Vantage Pointe Split

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Late last week, I got an e-mail passed along to me that had been sent to some former buyers in the Vantage Pointe project, downtown San Diego's biggest condo project.

The e-mail invited the buyers -- who received their 5 percent deposits back last month and this month -- to purchase a unit in the revamped project.

Those refunds came about when the developers realized they'd need to alter the project significantly in order to make it possible for buyers to obtain financing for their units. That involves a restructuring of the project through the Department of Real Estate, something that, as I understood it, had not been done.

So I was surprised to read this in the e-mail to the buyers:

How Does the Re-Phasing Affect Me?

The Department of Real Estate has given us permission to move forward with our new sales program.  As one of our original buyers in the Center Tower, we would like to give you priority before releasing information to the general public.  Initially, sales efforts will be focused on the homes in the South Tower and the 2-story townhomes.  These homes will be known as CityVibe.  The South-facing S plans, now referred to as Seascape, will also be a part of our initial sales program.  The homes in the Center Tower will be referred to as Horizons and will be available for lease at this time. Depending upon market conditions, we anticipate commencing sales in the entire North Tower at a later date.

 

Yesterday, I called Bob Gilmore, district manager of the subdivision section of the Department Real Estate for southern California, to check on the revised plans. I read him the paragraph I posted above.

"I haven't heard of any of that," Gilmore said. He said in order for those changes to get the DRE's permission, the developer would need to file a request to amend its public report, the official record for a residential project. The developer hasn't yet done that, he said.

The developer's attorney, Susan Daly, offered an explanation to me last night.

First, Daly emphasized that the changes are still in proposal stage. But she said that the DRE has, in concept, approved the developer's plan to split the Vantage Pointe project into smaller pieces -- some of which will house condos that will be offered for sale, some of which will comprise for-rent apartments and one of which will be a commercial space.

In all, the developers are planning right now to split the project into six mini-projects, she said, though eventually they're hoping to make the whole project a for-sale project. But plans for those six mini-projects have not yet been submitted to the DRE.

"This whole project is so huge that we have to break it down to make it more feasible," she said.

Here's some background:

Vantage Pointe, under development by Canadian company Pointe of View, was originally planned as a 679-condo development comprising the block between 9th and 10th avenues and A and B streets. Many buyers placed deposits on units in 2004 and 2005, only to find in 2009 that they couldn't get a mortgage because too few buyers had committed to the project. Add the scope of the project to the impossible financing hurdle and place it in the context of a struggling economy, and you can start to see why this building has had trouble. You can read more of the back story in this post.

But with the project due to finish construction soon, that leaves Daly and the developers, trying to figure out how to cut the building into pieces, to make each of the six mini-projects separate legal entities. While there are other projects in downtown that have mixed uses under the same roof -- hotels, restaurants, condos -- this appears to be a unique route for San Diego developments.

"Yes, this is creative -- probably the first of its kind -- but we have to be creative and think outside of the box when dealing with this economy," Daly said.

I asked Daly about the management of the building's wings or sections. There are three clear towers and facades on the building, though they're all attached. How would this six-piece project work?

One of the chief functions of the homeowners association of a condo project is to care for common facilities -- the roof, the lobby, the windows, the elevators. Daly said she's trying right now to draft the agreement for how the management of the projects would work. She said the developers will likely propose having a master association that would oversee everything for the project, but the details of that are still being worked out.

She said she hopes the former buyers, and interested observers of the project's success, recognizes the amount of money that the developers have invested in the project.

"They're not going to walk away," she said. "Our client basically had to figure out a way to make it through this, so that the buyers will be able to get financing."

Daly said the DRE has made its primary goal clear -- to protect the buyer and make sure none is left holding the bag, adding that the developer will be proposing these plans with that in mind.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 23 -- 7:27 pm

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For Sale in Sommerset Villas

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There's a one-bedroom condo on the market in Sommerset Villas in Escondido. Asking price: $60,950.

Less than a year ago, that condo sold for $265,000.

The unit was one of the 81 condos at the center of a massive real estate swindle orchestrated by Jim McConville. When we investigated that swindle earlier this year, we knew that the impact would be immense in the three complexes and in the surrounding neighborhoods of Escondido and San Marcos.

But this listing gives us our first concrete estimate at how big the losses will be for the banks involved in the series of transactions. The $212,000 loan used to finance this unit on June 25 last year was apparently sold on to Freddie Mac, one of the giant government-controlled mortgage companies, according to the public records filed when a property goes through foreclosure.

Now, Freddie Mac is hoping to get just $60,950 for it.

The unit, No. 12, had sold last year to a buyer named Michael Magaro, who became the owner of three other units in Sommerset Villas in a one-week period last year. Magaro's four loans went through Home Loan Network Corp., one of the predominant lenders involved in these series of transactions.

The biggest issue for anyone looking to buy this unit will be obtaining financing. Because so many of the units are in foreclosure (upwards of 35 in the 72-unit complex) and because of the dramatic impact this scheme has had on the property, there aren't enough owners living there to qualify for financing from conventional sources.

Plus, even though the price is drastically lower than the unit previously sold for, buyers would be buying into a homeowners association -- which is itself dealing with the same issues.

Here's what the listing says about the unit:

This unit is great!  It is a very spacious 1 bedroom unit with vaulted ceilings.  It feels very large, and comes with room for a washer and dryer!  The unit is not fully remodeled, it has some finish work to be completed.  With some paint, carpet, appliances and very small construction work, this home will be complete and ready to occupy!  The HOA is low on funds, and the O/O (owner-occupancy ratio) is very low.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 23 -- 12:37 pm

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Monday Morning Roundup

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Good morning. Let's jump straight into a Monday morning roundup of economy and housing news:

• Right off the bat, if you haven't read Rich Toscano's analysis of Friday's economic news (I'd reported the straight numbers here in Survival), you should do that. Toscano points out -- with a bunch of helpful graphs -- why the high unemployment rate is not necessarily an indication that the economy will get worse from this point on.



• The Union-Tribune took a look Saturday at distress and rising defaults in high-end neighborhoods like Point Loma, Solana Beach and Rancho Santa Fe.



• The Wall Street Journal looks at "pockets of recovery" in California. We wrote about some of those pockets in San Diego County a couple of months ago.



• The Associated Press described the trouble for homeowners associations when members, facing foreclosure or just strapped for cash, let their dues payments slide. Across the country, more than 59 million people live in communities governed by HOAs, the AP reported.



• The U-T points out in today's paper that the computers that hold property tax information at the county offices of the assessor and the tax collector are making the backlog of tax appeals from homeowners who bought at the top of the market that much harder to get through.



• One last note: Today's the kickoff for a countywide food drive for the San Diego Food Bank. When kids who've been eating free school meals are out of classes for the summer, the demand at the food bank goes way up. That along with rising unemployment prompts the food bank to seek donations in a food drive from today until Labor Day. The food bank especially requests the following items: canned meat and tuna, canned soups, canned fruits and vegetables, canned beans, dry cereal, rice, macaroni and cheese and spaghetti.
  
  If you have food to drop off, look for red barrels at Jack in the Box restaurants, Albertsons/Sav-on Pharmacy stores and Stater Bros. supermarkets.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Monday, June 22 -- 9:45 am

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Local Unemployment Rises Again

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San Diego County's unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent last month, up from 9.2 percent in April and a dramatic spike from May 2008's 5.4 percent, according to numbers released this morning by the state Employment Development Department.

That rate compared to the California rate of 11.2 percent and the national rate of 9.1 percent in the same period. (None of those numbers are adjusted for seasonal trends.)

California has reached the highest unemployment rate ever in the post WWII-era, the L.A. Times reported.

This new data for San Diego County didn't beat March's record of 9.5 percent (revised). But when the EDD first reported the March rate, it was estimated at 9.3 percent, and still set a record. April's rate was revised to reflect a higher-than-first-estimated rate, and it is possible May's rate will be revised higher in future months.

Between May 2008 and last month, the county lost 52,200 jobs, a 4 percent decrease. Rich Toscano pointed out that April's year-over-year rate of job loss had been a new low at 3.7 percent, and these new data appear to surpass that.

The biggest cuts included a 6,900-job loss in retail, 2,300 jobs of which were in car and truck parts and dealers. Construction payrolls shrank by 11,100 jobs over the year.

There were slight year-over-year gains in farming (200 jobs) and government. Local governments lost 1,200 jobs but federal and state agencies added 1,300 and 200 jobs, respectively, to give the category a slight net gain.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 19 -- 1:08 pm

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Seriously, Come to Our Event

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I can't stop thinking about our event next week to celebrate the people who make San Diego County work.

(OK, I guess I stopped thinking about it long enough to report other stories like this one on the W Hotel and commercial real estate trouble.)

I shared some of the rationale for the People at Work series with our media partners at NBC 7/39 today. Here's the clip:



If you want to come next Thursday, RSVP to camille@voiceofsandiego.org by tomorrow.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 18 -- 6:25 pm

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Wednesday Miscellany

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We're trying to collect RSVPs by Friday for our event next week. My colleagues have more reasons why you should plan to attend: Scott Lewis describes some fantastic items for the night's silent auction and Sam Hodgson reminds us that some excellent photos will be available for purchase.

I, meanwhile, have goose bumps thinking about all of these people in the same place. I hope you'll join us, too. E-mail camille@voiceofsandiego.org to RSVP.

In the blogosphere this morning:

Curious about what that Nantucket project in Encinitas looks like these days? Jim Klinge posted a video this morning on his blog.

Redfin has some graphs showing the local ZIP codes where buyers are securing the biggest discounts from the asking price.

Following its release of San Diego numbers yesterday, MDA DataQuick came out this morning with its report for six Southern California counties. Sales have now been rising across the region for 11 consecutive months in year-over-year comparisons.

Rich Toscano has a great breakdown of the relationship between supply and demand in the local market.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Wednesday, June 17 -- 11:45 am

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Home Sales Stay Strong

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Last month, 3,242 homes sold in San Diego County, down slightly from the 3,375 home sales in April but up 8 percent from May 2008, according to numbers released today by MDA DataQuick.

It was the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year increases for home sales.

Here are the sales broken down by category:

• Resale houses: 2,068 sold last month, down from 2,207 in April and up 16 percent from 1,782 in May 2008.
• Resale condos: 974 sold last month, down from 987 in April and up 10.2 percent from 884 in May 2008.
• New homes: 200 sold last month, up from 181 in April and down 36 percent from 313 last May.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 16 -- 7:20 pm

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So, You Want to Meet a Funeral Director?

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We have an exciting event coming up next week, and you're invited.

Much of the time, my attention is focused on numbers and analysis of the local housing market and economy -- illustrated with some human angles and anecdotes, but often weighted toward the news or the trend I'm writing about.

But once a month, I have an incredible chance to spend a day with someone in San Diego in his or her job. It's a series that has been running since 2006, featuring people ranging from the paleontologist finding fossils in the ground beneath downtown's skyscrapers to the assembly line manager at a guitar manufacturer to the phone-answerer at a car insurance company to the woman who collects beer and pop cans on the beach to supplement her retirement income.

My colleagues and I have also been telling some stories this year of community members who spotted problems in their communities and somehow addressed them to make this place better, from the man who teaches City Heights kids martial arts to the architect who helped San Ysidro picture its future.

Those stories fit in our People at Work and Virtual Convening series.

I want to make sure you know you're invited to our special event to celebrate all of the people who make San Diego work, next Thursday, June 25.

Come and enjoy light appetizers with us, meet some of these interesting people, view the incredible photos that have given you a glimpse of these people's lives and support the continued telling of these stories from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at the McMillin Event Center in Liberty Station.

To register, please e-mail camille@voiceofsandiego.org by June 19. Admission is free for voiceofsandiego.org donors and $20 for first-time donors.

This isn't the end of any of these series, or of our coverage of interesting people connected in and to this region. This is just a chance for all of us to get together and remember the vast, incredible diversity that makes San Diego the place it is.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 16 -- 12:54 pm

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Tracking Rents in Carlsbad

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In case you missed it, we published a story on Friday describing a significant shift in the local rental market. The number of properties sitting vacant is rising, and, as landlords compete to fill those units, rents are falling for the first time in two decades.

Rod Hatefi, a local real estate agent and landlord, wrote me on Saturday to share his insights:

I can attest to stagnant-to-declining rents in most Carlsbad zip codes in the order of 0%-5%. However, the decline seems to be more pronounced in newer communities with properties purchased between 2005-2007. In my experience, the culprit is what I refer to as "reluctant landlords" who are in trouble and don't have the financial stamina to absorb one or two months of vacancy. So they're hitting the panic button and dropping asking prices.

I wouldn't be surprised that in their haste, they are also skimping on due diligence and tenant screening, which can lead to tenant issues down the line. Likewise, tenants are more likely to experience problems due to their lessor's lack of funding and landlording experience.

 

Another possible explanation for the decline in rents could be that new investors are now competing in the rental market. However, prices have not dropped so much in Carlsbad to warrant bargain investment deals and subsequent rental rate drops. Not to mention that an experienced investor / landlord allows for marketing time and fully realizes the real threat of inflation and the need to modestly increase rents on an annual basis.

I wrote about the quandary many novice landlords are facing in a declining market last year. If you have seen something in the rental market you want to add to our discussion, leave a comment below (if you're not in Survival, go there).

-- KELLY BENNETT 

Date: 6/15/09

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A Local Bureaucrat's Pseudo-Furlough

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The New York Times looks today at furloughs -- the cost-cutting measures undertaken by struggling governments and businesses whereby employees take usually unpaid leave for a day or two a month.

Some people take the time off but feel bad about doing so, out of loyalty to bosses and colleagues left to carry the workload. Others work quietly -- and sometimes openly -- through furloughs, because they fear for the long-term safety of their positions and hope their self-sacrifice impresses the management.

And some say the message from the management is unclear, leaving employees wondering: Is this real time off?

"I think it's a joke," said Roland Becht, who works at the California Department of Motor Vehicles in San Diego. (More than 200,000 state employees are supposed to have two furlough days each month.) "I've tried to schedule furlough time and was denied because we're short-staffed."

American workers are finding themselves at a new frontier, and the rules are being written on the fly. Some companies have strict policies forbidding work during furloughs, or close down for days at a time. Others simply tell workers, however unrealistically, to squeeze in furlough time when they can.

Becht told the Times he's taken two of his eight furlough days and typically works an hour of overtime daily:

Work is more stressful than ever, he said.

"I really don't blame the management at our local level," said Mr. Becht, who took a 9.2 percent cut in pay several months ago. "I understand they can't let three or four people off when you're already understaffed."

But of the furlough, he added: "It's not doing what it was designed to do. We were imagining three-day weekends. There was some optimism. It was a trade-off for sure, but people were O.K. The mood now, I would say, is down. People are working in fear because they don't know what's going to happen next."

Have you or someone in your family been directed to take furlough days? How is it working in your workplace? Leave a comment below (go to Survival if you're not already there).

-- KELLY BENNETT

Date: 6/15/09

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Homing in on the High-End

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I came across a couple of links in the news today about high-end homes in San Diego County:

The U-T's Roger Showley described the situation for several would-be home sellers in La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe and several other wealthy enclaves.

Through the first four months of the year, 337 homes priced at $1 million or more closed escrow, down 52.4 percent from the same time last year, according to MDA DataQuick.

Over the same period, sales of homes less than $1 million totaled 10,987, up 37.5 percent. The overall median price in April was $290,000, down 44 percent from the peak of $517,500 in November 2005.

"The low end has been driving the county sales higher, while the luxury market has typically remained extremely sluggish," said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, adding, "Wealthy folks have taken huge hits that they haven't taken in a long time, if ever."

Here are some data to show the disparity between the supply of homes on the high end and the low end:

At the current rate, it would take nearly four months to sell all homes listed for less than $1 million. For homes priced at $1 million or more, the backlog stands at about 30 months, according to the San Diego Association of Realtors.

Obviously, the top end represents a small fraction of the local inventory. According to Zillow.com, 44,500, or 5.9 percent of the nearly 750,000 homes the online company tracks locally are worth $1 million or more. They are generally concentrated in coastal communities with a few scattered throughout the rest of the county.

But, according to the story, a disproportionate share -- 20 percent -- of the homes on the MLS last week were listed for at least $1 million.

Elsewhere, the LA Times' Peter Hong looked at a listing in Scripps Ranch in that paper's real estate blog today, calling it an example of how messy the market downturn is for high-end homes. And readers on Jim Klinge's blog are discussing the U-T story here.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Monday, June 15 -- 4:30 pm

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