Transnet, the sales tax hike approved in 2004, is officially on track to bring in $9 billion instead of the $14 billion promised to voters, according to revenue figures obtained by Voice of San Diego.
The numbers also show Measure A, another sales tax hike that voters rejected in November, would have raised $14 billion for transportation projects across the region, not $18 billion, the number promoted by SANDAG, the agency behind the measure.
SANDAG has corrected a crucial error in its economic forecast that led it to overstate revenue totals for both measures.
The agency’s been under increasing pressure over the error, especially since Voice of San Diego revealed that executives at the agency were made aware of the problem more than a year ago, and months before they put Measure A on the ballot, relying on the revenue expectations they knew were flawed.
But the agency has yet to announce officially the difference between its newly adopted forecast and the one it relied on for more than a decade. The old forecast was categorically wrong, not simply an overly optimistic view of the economy. SANDAG discovered the old forecast included a mistake in its source data.
Two weeks ago, at a meeting of a committee created to oversee TransNet, one of the committee members asked SANDAG’s chief economist, Ray Major, if he knew what the difference was between TransNet’s original $14 billion revenue expectation, and the newly adopted forecast.